Diamondbacks Top Prospects #10: Infielder Deyvison De Los Santos
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Name: Deyvison De Los Santos
Age: 19
Position: Third Baseman/First Baseman
Acquired: 2019 International Free Agent, $200K signing bonus
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Tools: Hit 45, Power 70, Defense 40, Arm 50, Run 40, Overall 45
ETA: 2024
Risk: High
2022 Overview
After finishing 2021 in Low-A, the Diamondbacks sent him back to Visalia to continue to improve at that level. In his Age 19 season, he put up solid numbers in the California League with a .329/.370/.513 slash, 12 home runs, and a 122 wRC+ in 78 games. It was buoyed by a .404 average on balls put into play, but it's not too uncommon in Low-A for a player who is hitting the ball with authority and consistency. That came with a 24.1% strikeout rate vs. a 6.3% walk rate, which was a bit troubling but given the type of hitter he's likely to develop into it wasn't going to prevent him from getting promoted to the next level.
In July, De Los Santos got promoted to High-A Hillsboro. He put up solid numbers, hitting .278/.307/.506 with 9 home runs and a 120 wRC+ in 38 games. There were some troubling peripherals behind that batting line though, with a 54/7 strikeout to walk ratio and a .365 BABIP that's not likely to carry up as he faces better defenses in the upper minors. Given how the Northwest League is one of the most pitcher-friendly leagues due to the humidity, especially his home park of Ron Tonkin field, pitchers were able to exploit the holes in his swing more effectively. He was still good enough to earn a cup of coffee in the final two weeks of the season with Double-A Amarillo for 10 games.
After a mostly successful season that had him complete both Low and High-A, the D-backs sent him to the Arizona Fall League to get more reps. He played third and first in the fall, but the issues that plagued him in Hillsboro were heavily exploited in the fall league. In 18 games, he hit .219/.286/.328 with only six extra base hits, no home runs, 22 strikeouts, and five walks. It was a bit disappointing to see him struggle despite being one of the better prospects in the league, but also a reminder that he's still raw as a hitter and needs more development. Even with the disappointing showing, his 2022 season should be viewed as a massive success in terms of development as he was able to get 630 plate appearances in.
2023 Outlook
De Los Santos is still very young and won't turn 20 until June. He'll likely start the year with Double-A Amarillo, which is arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minor leagues. That can actually be more problematic for a hitter than a pitcher, as a hitter might be enticed to try to slug his way to the big leagues instead of focusing on improving the approach and accepting the results.
The key for De Los Santos is to improve his plate discipline numbers, which means lowering his strikeout rate and increasing the walk rate. Playing in a notorious hitter-friendly league will have pitchers trying to nibble at the edges of the strike zone instead of attacking, so he'll get a lot of shadow and chase zone pitches. It's important that he lays off those and make the pitchers come into the heart of the strike zone where he can punish those mistakes. In his first action with Amarillo, he had a 20% strikeout rate vs. a 11% walk rate in 45 plate appearances. If he can repeat that in 2023, he'll see time in Reno and perhaps a chance to earn some at-bats with the big league club in September.
Unless he struggles mightily with Amarillo in 2023, he's a sure lock to be added to the 40-man roster, as the team is looking to develop him into a middle of the order thumper. A good year would likely vault him into Top 100 prospect status, which is important as the D-backs could stand to benefit if he has a good rookie season in 2024.
MLB Projection
De Los Santos is still a very difficult projection, as he's still only 19 years old and it showed for better or worse. Sometimes his focus is inconsistent and he aims for results at the plate, as opposed to approach because he doesn't need to sell out for power. That may be a function of his youth, which hopefully sorts itself out as he gets more repetitions and matures.
At his ceiling he is an everyday first baseman or designated hitter that hits .250 with a .300 OBP, but with 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI per season. With the low OBP, high ISO projection, the best spot to bat him in the lineup is either third or fifth in the order where they can maximize the effectiveness of the "all-or-nothing" approach.
I'm not as worried about where he'll end up defensively because there will always be a spot for him in the lineup if he hits. If he is able to provide some consistent thump in the middle of the order, worst case scenario he's an everyday DH. I'm not so bullish on him sticking at third base, I don't see the athleticism necessary to stick even though he has the arm for the position. He has decent mobility at first base, so there is some potential for him to be an average defender there.
