Diamondbacks Top Prospects #7: RHP Slade Cecconi
Name: Slade Cecconi
Age: 23
Position: Starting Pitcher
Acquired: 2020 MLB Draft, Competitive Balance Round A (33), $2.385M signing bonus
Grades: Fastball 50, Curveball 50, Slider 60, Changeup 50, Command 50, Overall 50
Cecconi sits in the lower 90s, but can reach back for as much as 98 MPH on a given pitch. His slider is his best secondary pitch, which tunnels well away from right-handed hitters. The curveball has changed shape since going pro, moving towards a slower, big breaking curveball that breaks straight down with mid 70s velocity. He also uses a changeup, which will be key as he'll need to develop a third usable pitch to remain a starter.
ETA: 2023
Risk: Medium
2022 Overview
Plagued by injuries and inconsistent performances earlier in his career, 2022 was a big year for Cecconi. He made 25 starts with Double-A Amarillo, going 7-6 with a 4.37 ERA and a 127/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 129.2 innings. He lowered his walk rate more than 2%, from 8.1% to 5.7%, which is challenging considering how difficult an environment pitching in Amarillo can get. His strikeout rate also experienced a similar drop, but that may be due to pitching at three times the elevation of Phoenix.
As is typically the case for a pitcher in an extreme hitter's park, there are big home/road splits for ERA and OPS. At home, Cecconi had a 5.74 ERA and an .869 OPS compared to 3.27 and .724 away from Hodgetown. It's also worth noting that he had a big BABIP split as well, with opposing hitters putting up a .343 mark at Hodgetown and .288 on the road. In terms of strikeout to walk ratio, Cecconi is 5.00 at home and 3.35 on the road. Considering that he had an ERA of 4.37 while pitching in one of the most extreme hitter-friendly parks and leagues with a very low walk rate and a decent strikeout rate, his 2022 season should be viewed as a massive success.
2023 Outlook
With the strong year in Double-A, Cecconi will likely open 2023 with Triple-A Reno. Compared to Amarillo, it is a slightly easier place to pitch in, although some of the road parks in the Pacific Coast League are going to be difficult. The organization will not be focusing on his ERA, but rather his ability to jump ahead of hitters and the overall shape of his pitches. With him being Rule 5 eligible next off-season, he's a sure bet to receive some big league starts in 2023. After Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, there isn't a lot of certainty in the Diamondbacks rotation, so expect an opportunity to present itself late in the season.
MLB Projection
Cecconi isn't the top of the rotation pitcher we thought he could become ahead of the 2021 season, but he looks like a potential #4 starter in a playoff rotation. My biggest concern will be his ability to maintain his top stuff, which was an issue when he pitched in the Arizona Fall League last winter. With the amount of potential starters at the top of the system, that skill will be a determining factor to whether or not he can stay in a rotation. The D-backs will likely exhaust all possibilities of him being a starter before making the decision to move him to the bullpen.
As a reliever, Cecconi is a candidate to pitch in the back-end of the bullpen if his fastball can stay around 96-98 with more consistency in short bursts. If he's able to maintain his top velocity in bullpens, he is a candidate to be moved into short relief. As a reliever, he could either be a multi-inning bridge reliever between the starter and the back-end of the pen or a potential setup man who can get anywhere from three to six outs in an appearance.
