Can Clayton Kershaw Finally Get Over his Postseason Dodger Blues?
After allowing consecutive home runs to Nationals' Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto in blowing a save in the final game of the 2019 National League Division Series, Clayton Kershaw said the following: “That’s the hardest part every year. When you don’t win the last game of the season and you’re to blame, it’s not fun...Everything people say is true right now about the postseason. I understand that. Nothing I can do about it right now. It’s a terrible feeling, it really is.”
"Everything people say is true right now about the postseason...It’s a terrible feeling, it really is.”
The Dodgers' future Hall of Famer came right out and said what we were all thinking. Everything people say is true.
He's also right that it is a terrible feeling. For all concerned, which includes the entire Los Angeles organization, all of its fans and baseball fans the world over. All but a few heartless individuals in cities that shall go nameless feel for the guy. They feel the hurt. They want to see Kershaw finally get over the hump, to pitch well throughout a postseason and go home a champion.
But can he? Can he finally get over the hump and lead his team to glory?
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My feeling is, it's the World Series championship that Kersh covets more than his own historic performance. If he were to pitch well two or three times during a postseason, with a bad outing or two sprinkled in and a 2020 October ERA of 4.33 (which is his lifetime postseason ERA), he'd be in-the-clouds happy. With tears of joy, instead of the other kind.
Which is good, because I think that's the most likely way it goes down. If Kersh pitches well, but not without incident, and others perform to and beyond expectation, L.A. can make it through to the other side as the last team standing. At long last. Thirty-two years long last.
I don't know if Kershaw can do it the other way. The Madison Bumgarner way, or the Bob Gibson way. Or the Sandy Koufax way. Because he's never done it before.
Kershaw has appeared in 16 postseason series over nine years. The closest he's come to a completely successful postseason was during the 2015 National League Division Series versus the Mets, when he allowed three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings, with four walks and 11 strikeouts in a Game 1 loss, and a lone run in seven frames, with a walk and eight strikeouts in a Game 4 win. The Dodgers will happily take the 2.63 ERA and 0.878 WHIP this time around, thank you very much.
But through no fault of Kershaw's, L.A. lost that series to New York, one and done. Los Angeles needs sustained performance from Kershaw in the same October that they get it from the other men in the room. Each year's team has its own cast of characters. This may very well be the year. But Kershaw needs to pitch well in a postseason beyond one series in which his club lost. And it hasn't happened, ever.
I'll spare you the entire blow by blow and sum up this way:
In 2013 the Dodgers' ace had a brilliant NLDS (0.69, 18 Ks in 13 IP and an 0.769 WHIP) and a mess of an NLCS (6.30, 7 ER on 12 H in 10 IP), famously against St. Louis. In another one-and-done, also vs. St. Louis in the 2014 NLDS, Kershaw blew up in allowing 11 ER in 12 2/3, good for two losses and a 7.82 ERA. Or bad for.
Kershaw allowed three earned in five innings in Game 1 of the 2016 NLDS at Washington, allowed 5 ER in 6 2/3 in Game 4 and got the save in Game 5. All three games were wins for his club, team wins are all that matters, but the ERA was 5.84. Following up, the left-hander was brilliant in 2016 NLCS Game 2 at Wrigley, going seven scoreless in an L.A. 1-0 win, but lost the deciding sixth game, allowing five runs (four of them earned) in five innings, as the Cubs won their first pennant since the Truman Administration. Both team and pitcher would have to wait another year.
A 5.68 ERA in the 2017 NLDS versus Arizona, an inspiring 2.45, 3 ER in 11 IP performance in the Dodgers' first NLCS victory since 1988 versus the Cubs and a 4.02 ERA to the cheating Astros in the seven-game World Series defeat. If ever there was an injustice in baseball history, the 2017 Series is it. L.A. would've won that Fall Classic and we wouldn't be having this conversation. But even setting aside Horrible Houston, 2017 was not a blip-free postseason for Mr. Kershaw.
A glorious start versus Atlanta in the 2018 NLDS (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R), then a 4.09 NLCS, followed by a 7.36 World Series loss to Mookie Betts and the Boston Red Sox.
A three-runs-in-six-innings quality start loss to Washington in Game 2 of the NLDS last year, the back-to-back-homer blown save in Game 5, a 7.11 ERA and we're right back where we started. One incident-free postseason, a postseason in which the Dodgers went one and done.
All told, the career postseason mark is as follows: 9-11, 4.43, 1.105, 24 HR, with 170 Ks in 158 1/3. The ERAs get higher as the games get tougher (a career 3.99 in the NLDS, 4.61 in the NLCS and 5.40 in the WS).
And it's in his head. You know it's in his head. You just hope he can pitch well enough, enough times in one October, to win a World Series. That's all he wants; that's all you want. You don't know if Kershaw can do it. I don't know if Kershaw can do it. And neither does he. But no one get past that thing that's been standing in there way forever until they do. Let's keep a good thought for the man, shall we?
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.
