Dodgers Analysis: What Should The Framework Be For An Offseason Nolan Arenado Trade?
The Los Angeles Dodgers had quite a busy trade deadline.
They acquired Kiké Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Ryan Yarbrough, Lance Lynn, and Joe Kelly before last Tuesday's deadline, but they made just as much -- if not more -- news for they moves they couldn't make than the ones they did.
Most notably, the Dodgers were in discussions on a deal that would've brought St. Louis Cardinals All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado to LA. Those talks seemed to gain considerable momentum before Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak announced that he wouldn't trade the star.
But even though Mozeliak held onto Arenado, that doesn't close the door on the Dodgers broaching the subject of that deal this offseason.
So what would a second attempt at a trade for the California native look like?
Very similar to the framework of a first try.
From the Dodgers' side, they would have to remain measured on this deal. That essentially means that Bobby Miller is untouchable in any trade, as LA's top pitching prospect has had a strong first foray in the big leagues.
Others like LA's No. 4 prospect Gavin Stone and No. 16 prospect Landon Knack may both be up for grabs, and they'd provide solid value for the Cardinals.
Stone's had a rollercoaster of a year so far in a season that's seen him make his major league debut, get sent back down to Triple-A Oklahoma City, and perform inconsistently down south, to the tune of a 5.79 ERA and a MiLB career high 1.47 WHIP for the OKC Dodgers. That said, he still has the wipeout changeup that quickly turned him into one of LA's top pitching prospects, and the Cardinals could get some value out of the high-ceiling, but very unproven Stone.
For Knack, the 26-year-old has had a solid year in 2023, getting promoted from Double-A to Triple-A Oklahoma City after starting off his season with a 2.20 ERA over 12 starts for Tulsa.
It's been a bit of an adjustment for Knack since his promotion, but he's looked strong recently for OKC and profiles as a potential back end of the rotation starter in the big leagues.
Those two would be quality additions for the rebuilding Cardinals, and the next two names could be even more attractive for St. Louis.
Dodgers utility man Chris Taylor has had an up-and-down year for LA, but has performed better of late, and he'd be a player St. Louis could plug in either at third base as immediate Arenado replacement, or opt to put him in the outfield.
For LA's No. 2 prospect Michael Busch, he's been blocked from getting an extended opportunity in the bigs because of a logjam in the infield and the resurgences of David Peralta and Jason Heyward. His performance has been no concern though as he's raking in Triple-A with a .314/.426/.595 slash line and has good power along with that, something that could make him an immediate impact player in St. Louis.
If the Dodgers were to trade the quartet of Taylor, Stone, Busch, and Knack for Arenado, LA would vastly improve with Arenado's impact bat. Even though the Dodgers would lose three quality prospects, each of the trio are unknown when it comes to their big league production.
And with St. Louis losing one year of control over their third baseman by the time the offseason comes around, that gives the Cardinals less leverage and thus an arm like Stone as opposed to Emmet Sheehan, who's already shown he can do well in MLB, albeit in a relatively small sample size.
We'll see if the Dodgers end up bringing Arenado to LA, and this package may be enough to see them send their All-Star west in a delayed deal.
The second time could be the charm for the Dodgers.
