2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Max Muncy

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Max Muncy

He's one of the Dodgers' best big-stage hitters, standing out most recently in 2019 National League Division Series with a .263/.391/.737 line, three home runs and seven RBIs. He's no fluke. He's Max Muncy, primed for another big season in 2020.

So in this, the first of series a preseason projections pieces in this space, let's talk about the upcoming campaign.

Baseball-reference.com projects Muncy's numbers like this: 

543 PA, 454 AB, 86 R, 115 H, 2 3B, 33 HR,86 RBIs, 4 SB, .253/.367/.893. BR's projections include a Rel-for-reliability figure of 80%. Rel "[s]hows how much of the forecast is based on the player's performance, and how much is regression to the mean (e.g. 87% reliability implies 13% regression to the mean." Ya got that.

Steamer's 2020 projections for Muncy are as follows:

138 G, 589 PA, 29 HR, 81 R, 79 RBIs, 4 SB, .241/.355/.467.

Comment: I can't compete with the mathematical systems used by these sites (see BR's explanation here), nor would I ever try. Instead I'll point to Dave Roberts, who in a post-game interview one night in 2019 gave Muncy the ultimate complement in calling him "a baseball player." Not, he's a baseball player, in that that's his occupation, but he's a baseball player in that he's a grinder, he knows what he's doing, he puts in the work and does everything he can to help his team win games. Always.

The 2018 out-of-nowhere season was no aberration. Muncy's a stud versus left-hand pitchers (.268/.365/.529 last year) and right (.242/.377/.509). He's improved his defense at three positions and will continue to grow as a performer. He's got 70 homers and 177 ribs with a .256/.381/.545 line in two years as a Dodger. I'll stick my neck out with those HR and RBI numbers divided by two and that exact line as my projection for 2020. Let's review in October.