Where Would Dodgers' Japanese Star Rank on a Top-100 Prospect List?
One of the best things about sports water cooler talk is the hypotheticals.
We have to use our imagination somewhat when comparing players, teams, or eras to one another. In the case of the 2023-24 Major League Baseball offseason, the free agent class was dominated by a host of highly touted players from Asia.
Among the biggest contracts signed this winter: Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (San Francisco Giants), Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers).
In one of those fun hypotheticals, Baseball America writer Kyle Glaser did a deep dive into speculating on where the aforementioned trio would rank in the site's Top 100 prospects list.
Glaser notes the top prospects in baseball begin with Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes, Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday, and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio.
In years past, Baseball America has included first-year Asian players like Yamamoto on its annual Top 100 prospect list. This year, however, Yamamoto was ineligible.
BA indulged the thought exercise anyway: how should we think of Yamamoto in the context of other 2024 first-year players who might be a little younger?
Glaser first compared Yamamoto to Skenes:
Yamamoto is a major league-ready, frontline starter and would be the undisputed top pitching prospect in baseball if he were eligible. He has three plus pitches with a mid-90s fastball that reaches 99 mph, a 76-78 mph curveball that freezes hitters on both sides of the plate and a diving 88-91 mph splitter that induces ground balls and empty swings. He also has an above-average slider he can shorten into a cutter and ties it all together with plus control and exceptional athleticism and durability.
He has equivalent or better upside than Paul Skenes, the top-ranked pitching prospect on the BA Top 100, and considerably less risk given his polish and proven dominance in Nippon Professional Baseball, the highest level of baseball in the world outside of MLB.
- Baseball America's Kyle Glaser
Glaser then went to compare Yamamoto to Chourio and Holliday. Many have those two as arguably the top two prospects in the sport. While they play different positions, it's still fun to see how Glaser compared the Dodgers' new ace to two highly-touted athletes:
The question is now whether Yamamoto would be the top pitching prospect in baseball, but the top prospect overall. Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday and Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio similarly project to be franchise cornerstones and have more chances to make an impact as everyday position players.
At the same time, Yamamoto has considerably less risk than both given his experience in NPB. Yamamoto would have a very compelling argument to be the No. 1 prospect on the BA Top 100 and would be no lower than No. 3.
- Baseball America's Kyle Glaser
Yamamoto's age and status make him difficult to classify as a "prospect." The 25-year-old is expected to slot atop the LA rotation alongside new teammates Walker Buehler and Tyler Glasnow.
Regardless of their familiarity with Yamamoto, anyone supporting the Dodgers can get excited about a player who would be a top-three prospect in the game making his debut this season.
Baseball America's endorsement adds context to the Dodgers' 12-year, $325 million contract for a pitcher who has yet to prove himself on the MLB stage but possesses all the talent in the world — in any context.
