Former SF Giants: What's the secret to Brandon Belt's success with the Blue Jays?

O Captain my captain! That's either Walt Whitman writing about Abraham Lincoln or the SF Giants greeting former first baseman and self-proclaimed team captain Brandon Belt at Rogers Centre in Toronto this week when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays.

After an injury-marred final season with the Giants last year, where a chronic knee injury sapped his power, Belt signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for $9.3 million. After a woeful start to the season, where Belt went 1-23 with a whopping 15 strikeouts, he broke out and now sits with a .264/.373/.423 slash line.

Belt was even (a distant) second to Shohei Ohtani in the All-Star voting to be the American League's starting designated hitter, after which Belt facetiously called himself a better hitter, pitcher, and leader than the Angels star.

How is Belt doing it? First, Toronto is rarely letting him face a left-handed pitcher. In 51 games, Belt has only come to bat against a southpaw 18 times, where he's 3-16 with two walks. He might be the primary DH, but hitting lefties is Alejandro Kirk's job.

The other big change is that Belt has taken his selectivity to another level. Belt was known for his batting eye and some painful strikeouts looking over the years for the Giants. And some amazing walks, like this one from 2020 against Julio Urías.

What a great professional at-bat by Brandon Belt against Julio Urias. Urias tried to change eye level a ton here —soft stuff down and the fastball up — but Belt wouldn't bite. pic.twitter.com/OtVe7RswI3
— Julian McWilliams (@byJulianMack) August 26, 2020

This year, he's swinging at a career-low 21.3% of pitches out of the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. But he's also swinging at a career-low 67.1% of pitches in the strike zone.

Overall, Belt is taking three out of every five pitches he sees. His called-strike percentage is 18.3%, and his called-strike plus whiff rate is 29.4%. Basically, Belt is letting a lot of pitches go, whether they're over the plate or not.

It seems like as Belt's gotten older and his reactions slow down, he's started to guess more. If he doesn't get the pitch he wants, he's content to take it. If he does get the pitch he wants, he's smacking it.

You can see this in his batted-ball stats. Belt almost never pops up. He's pulling the ball more often than he has since 2014. Belt makes soft contact on less than 9% of his batted balls. That's how he's been a solidly above-average hitter while striking out over 37% of the time.

Some of the value comes from Belt's ridiculous .443 batting average on balls in play. While that should come down, the statistic isn't as random as you might think. If Belt is content to strike out if he doesn't get the pitch he wants, that BABIP makes more sense. Moreover, Belt has posted BABIPs north of .350 four times in his career, and that was before this year's shift ban conceivably makes it easier for him to thrive. That's also why he's only grounded into three double plays all season despite running like a sea captain.

Is this sustainable? Probably not. Eventually, the league will catch up and start feeding Belt more breaking balls, or he'll stop being able to catch up to fastballs.

But for now, he's been a bright spot offensively for the Blue Jays, and an inspiration to all aging and yes, lazy SF Giants fans out there. Belt's 2023 is a testament to the idea that sometimes, you're better off not doing anything at all.

That's the captain. Keeping a steady hand on the tiller and the bat on his shoulder until it's time to go full speed ahead on a fastball. Because all crews need from their captain what Brandon Belt brings to the plate: Discipline.