5 SF Giants prospects most likely to be traded at the deadline
Major League Baseball's trade deadline on August 1st is fast approaching and the stove is definitely getting hot. We've already seen a number of trades happen and it definitely won't be the last. As far as the SF Giants are concerned, they are right in the thick of things once again as a team clearly inside the postseason hunt looking at other teams to address their pressing needs on both sides of the ball.
From Justin Verlander and Marcus Stroman to Tim Anderson, there is a good amount of star power and depth in this class. And with President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi declaring last month that they are going to be aggressive to continue fueling their postseason push, Giants fans should get ready on what kind of capital in their farm system they have to give up in order to potentially bring the title back to the Bay Area.
Even though there is an adage of "no prospect is untouchable for the right price", there are certain types of prospects who the Giants and other teams are most likely to give up due to a variety of reasons. It could be because there is a question mark tied to their performance this year or they are included in the 40-man roster. In any way, shape, or form, there are a certain group of prospects who fit the mold and have a higher chance of getting dealt than others.
To read Wrenzie and Marc's updated Giants top 42 prospects at the mid-season mark, click here.
Marco Luciano (Marc & Wrenzie's #3 prospect)
If the Giants intend to reel in a big fish at the trade deadline, you got to have good bait, and Marco Luciano is as good of a bait as there is in the organization. And with the recent news of his big-league call-up, a lot of eyes will be looking at his performance on the biggest stage.
There are plenty of factors why Luciano has fallen off somewhat in a lot of people's minds. Some of it is due to prospect fatigue, and some of it is due to glaring holes in his game. For the season, Luciano has a .235/.342/.469 triple slash line with 14 doubles, 13 home runs, a 14.5% walk rate, and a 29.7% strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is inside the top three among all Giants prospects with at least 250 plate appearances. However, Luciano has the 16th lowest swinging strike rate with 13.4%.
There has been a method to his madness all season long. He's been working the counts which often lead him to two-strike situations that often times hurt him. However, the Giants seem to prefer the process rather than the current result for them to bring him up to the Show. That could signal to other teams that Luciano might be off the table at the deadline. But for the Giants to land a star-level player or more, a talent like Luciano has to be on the table.
Grant McCray (Marc's #11/Wrenzie's #12 prospect)
Vaun Brown (Marc's #13/Wrenzie's #14 prospect)
One of the profiles that are often highly sought in the trade deadline is prospects with big tools but have contact concerns. In 2021, the Giants made a trade that sent a prospect with big tools but has contact concerns in Alexander Canario. This year, the Giants have two such prospects who fit such mold: Grant McCray and Vaun Brown.
McCray has been the Emeralds' leadoff hitter all season long while Brown started the season hurt but managed to make his way to Double-A Richmond and settle as one of the team's starting outfielders. Both have shown their plus toolset with McCray hitting 16 doubles, six triples, 10 home runs, and stole 33 bases while Brown has hit 14 doubles, two triples, nine home runs, and a perfect 17/17 in stolen base opportunities. However, both McCray (.244) and Brown (.235 at AA) have concerns with their ability to make contact in general and their inability to hone in their strikeout rate (29.5% for McCray, 37.7% for Brown in AA).
Their profiles and their ability to play center field at a high level make them promising prospects for other teams to take a shot on as an add-on prospect to a major deal. The Giants also look set long-term at center field as Luis Matos continues to develop into a potential star-caliber outfielder. That makes trading either McCray or Brown easier for Farhan and company.
Landen Roupp (Marc's #14/Wrenzie's #13 prospect)
There are a number of mid-level pitching prospects that could be on the block such as Keaton Winn, Mason Black, or the recently-graduated Tristan Beck. Either of which can be on the move by the deadline. However, I have a gut feeling that Landen Roupp is the most likely pitching prospect to be moved.
Roupp has had a strong 2023 season for the Flying Squirrels with a 1.74 ERA and a 42/9 K:BB ratio in 31 innings pitched. His curveball is still a thing of beauty and his low-90s sinker helps him achieve just a 28.8% flyball rate. Roupp's biggest issue this season is not his stuff or performance, it's his health having been injured twice this year. He did not pitch for Richmond until late April and was placed in the 7-day IL on July 4th.
The Giants have invested a lot in pitching throughout the past couple of drafts and are now reaping the results as they have a glut of pitchers with the ability to throw multiple innings but are not fully considered to be legitimate starting pitchers. That makes a guy like Roupp expendable but any of the team's second-tier of pitching prospects makes a lot of sense as the Giants look to find a solid big-league starter alongside Logan Webb and Alex Cobb.
Randy Rodriguez (Marc's #35/Wrenzie's #36 prospect)
Some of the trades that happen in the trade deadline involve certain machinations of the 40-man roster. Adding a 40-man prospect to a deal happens either the team is opening up a spot for their star acquisition or for an internal promotion without giving up that talent through waivers for getting DFA'd. This year, it is Randy Rodriguez's turn on the trading block.
The Giants protected Rodriguez from the Rule 5 draft a couple of years ago by adding him to the 40-man roster after a dominant stint in San Jose. A couple of years have now passed and there have been a couple of experimentations that the Giants have done to squeeze the most out of Rodriguez's precious 40-man spot by pushing him into the rotation then proceeded to rush him through the ladder as a reliever. So far this year, Rodriguez has a 5.16 ERA across three levels. His stuff is still nasty with his fastball hitting 95-97 mph paired with his sharp slider, but his control issues plagued him with a 17.4% walk rate for the year.
It is pretty easy to see why Randy Rodriguez might be on the trading block as a complimentary piece on any deadline deal that the Giants will do. Any team that thinks that they could fix his control and turn his big-league-caliber stuff back to dominance should consider adding him to the deal.
Jack Choate (Wrenzie's #38 prospect)
There have been prospects in the past that were traded because of their dominant performance even though there are clear holes in their game. One such former Giants pitching prospect is Caleb Kilian. Kilian tore through High-A and Double-A before being traded to the Cubs a couple of years ago. There are a number of pitching prospects in the Giants system that performed well this year, but I feel Jack Choate is the most likely of the bunch to get traded.
The ninth-round selection in last year's draft has been dominant in the low Minors this year with an ERA of 2.25 in 18 appearances, 10 of which were starts, and he's struck out 87 batters in 68 innings pitched. He's done so by relying more on deception rather than pure stuff as his very tall frame and low-3/4 arm slot give his rather modest 90-93 mph fastball more oomph than usual. It also helps his slider and changeup play better than usual. The Assumption product has also kept his walks at a solid 8.5% rate.
Choate is most likely more of a complimentary piece that other teams might covet due to his performance and deception that makes his stuff punch above their weight. And with an influx of left-handed power arms via the draft, that could make Choate more expendable. However, there is also a case for Choate to be kept as progressive teams like the Giants will covet pitchers with unique pitching characteristics like him. It is all a matter of who they can get in return.
Stats are updated as of July 26, 2023.
