Series Preview: SF Giants @ Cubs - Wild Card crisis
This preview goes out to my sister, who's keeping the faith this week amidst tremendous uncertainty. When she ventures out into the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, she'll be rooting on a Giants team that's struggled in almost every conceivable way. Their starters have given up 16 runs in the last 3 days, their offense (.217 batting average, .633 OPS) has easily been the worst in baseball over the past two months, and their defense can go from jaw-dropping to face-palming in the blink of an eye. It's a minor miracle that they're only 5 games under .500 (21-26) since the All-Star Break.
And yet, they still have a chance. In one of the most thrilling coincidences in recent memory, the National League Wild Card race is absolutely packed. Four teams currently sit tied for the third and final Wild Card spot entering Monday's game, which would invoke a half-dozen tiebreakers, Rob Manfred's emergency key, and several liters of pig's blood if the season ended today. Let's break it all down.
First, what we know: the NL West and NL East are effectively locked up; the Dodgers hold a 14.5 game lead in the West, and Atlanta's lead is even larger. In the Central, the Brewers have a 3.0 game lead that could easily evaporate in the final month, but even then, they have a 6.5 game cushion over the final Wild Card. Odds are that they're in, too.
When it comes to the Wild Card, snagging any one of the three top spots gets you into the Wild Card Weekend, where you'll fight to move onto the Division Series - each league's quarterfinals. The Phillies seem destined for the top spot, and the Cubs have a 3.0 game lead to keep them in the picture. That too could disappear, but for now, the drama is in the third and final spot, where the Giants cling to life.
With a win percentage of .511 on the year, the SF Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, and Miami Marlins all sit tied for the third and final Wild Card spot. For the Giants, this is dire news. That means they must outpace four other teams over the final month of play to even have a chance to get into the Wild Card tournament, let alone the playoffs. Play 3.5 games better than the Cubs by the end of the year? Best hope the Marlins and Diamondbacks didn't match your record and edge you out of a three-way tie for two spots. Reds end up leaking oil and falling out of the race? Sure, as long as the Cubs and Marlins don't play a game better.
There really is no alternative here. The Giants have to start winning, and winning now. They've treaded water in an unbelievable fashion for the last couple of months. But soon, all that will be is the silver lining of a wasted season. An impressive winning streak by the Diamondbacks would torpedo every other team's playoff chances. There's no time to waste.
If the Giants somehow sweep this series, it would put them in pole position for the second Wild Card spot, and even cover up some critical losses later on. If they simply win the series, then they at least have a fighting shot. If they lose the series, then they haven't been eliminated, not mathematically. But they'll have given up any chance they had to have a say in how this all turns out. And if they get swept, their playoff push sure would look dead on arrival.
As things stand, it won't be easy. The Cubs have a top-10 offense since the break, and the three starters they'll trot out have been among the best in baseball in the past month. For the Giants to break through, they'll need someone to step up, someone they can lean on for this stretch run. It might seem hard to believe that a savior will arise, but you never know. Maybe there's still a little magic inside.
Series details
Who: SF Giants at Chicago Cubs
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
When: September 4-6, Monday (11:20 AM), Tuesday (4:40 PM), and Wednesday (11:20 AM). All times Pacific.
Giants' current streak: L3, 4-6 in last 10, 70-66 overall, 0.5 GB of 3rd Wild Card
Cubs' current streak: W1, 6-4 in last 10, 73-64 overall, 2nd Wild Card (+2.5 GB)
Projected starters:
Monday: Logan Webb (9-11, 3.49 ERA) vs. Justin Steele* (15-3, 2.69 ERA)
Tuesday: TBD** vs. Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 3.59 ERA)
Wednesday: TBD** vs. Jordan Wicks* (2-0, 1.80 ERA)
*Indicates LHP
**Indicates opener
How to watch, listen
- SF Giants broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area, KNBR 680/1510 AM
- Opposing broadcast: Marquee Sports Network, 670 The Score/TUDN WRTO 1200
- National broadcasts: MLB Network (Monday, out-of-market only), TBS (Tuesday, out-of-market only)
- Live stream: fuboTV (start your free trial)
