How many 'big innings' do the SF Giants have in 2023?
The SF Giants have been on a cold streak lately. Since the All-Star Break, San Francisco ranks dead last in the MLB in batting average (.207) and slugging percentage (.335). They've stolen just five bases in their last 887 plate appearances. It's the profile of a team that hasn't been able to create its own offense, which is why Monday's six-run, ninth-inning comeback came as such a pleasant surprise. Finally, they were able to do some real damage against an opposing pitcher.
Which got me thinking. How often have the Giants put up a crooked number this year, in any capacity? Not just a solid run of at-bats that leaves you thinking, "Okay, good, that definitely helps," but the kind of inning that makes you feel at least a little bad for the opposing pitcher? So I dug into the game logs to find out.
Before I start, I should qualify what I mean by a "big inning." In this case, that means any time the Giants scored four or more runs in any inning, irrespective of who pitched to them and how they got those runs. I settled on four runs because it represents a differential that can only be erased in one swing by the almighty grand slam, and because four runs is San Francisco's average runs per game total (4.43, rounded down). With that in mind, I went month-by-month, hunting for games in which the Giants scored an entire day's worth of runs all at once. Here's what I found.
April Showers
The Giants started off strong on the offensive side, tallying nine 'big innings' over eight games in April. They racked up three of them against the White Sox in the first week of the season, with four and five-run innings in a 12-3 win and another four-spot in a 16-6 win two days later. They hosted another four-run inning against Kansas City in a loss on April 8, but didn't record another until an 11th-inning rally against the Marlins on the 19th.
From there, they went on another run, recording three big innings in five days, splitting two of those games with the Mets and beating the Cardinals 4-0 on April 24th. They rounded out the month with a six-run inning in the Mexico City space race with the Padres, a game they'd ultimately lose 11-16.
San Francisco struggled in the first full month of the season, but by and large, it wasn't their offense that was dragging them down. They hit 46 home runs that month (second-most in baseball), with an OPS that ranked fifth. They also struck out more than anybody else, without walking all that much, which made them a bit streaky. But when the Giants were on, they were tough to beat, going 5-3 in games with a big inning and outscoring their opponents 64-46.
May Flowers
The Giants spent a couple of weeks without a big inning after that Mexico City series took its toll on the team. On May 11, though, they came back in a big way, scoring four in the top of the ninth to secure a win against the ascending D-backs. San Francisco put up another pair, this time including a six-run outburst, in the following series against the Phillies. After a decent weekend against Miami, the Giants stole a win from Minnesota after scoring all four of their runs in the first inning of a 4-1 victory.
At this point, the Giants' offense started to go thermonuclear. In four games against the Brewers, they put up three big innings, including a 7-run air show as part of a 15-1 win. The day after that series ended, the Giants hosted the Pirates and dropped five and eight-run innings en route to a 14-4 laugher. At this point, all cylinders were firing, and they'd begin a run where they'd score 10+ runs at least once in six of seven series. All told, they went 7-1 with a run differential of 62-22 in 'big inning' games.
June Bounty
If April showers bring May flowers, what do May flowers bring? Pilgrims! And like the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock, the Giants gave thanks to the bounty of big innings by winning all five games in which they recorded one. All five came against divisional rivals, too, which helped them gain significant ground in the NL West, finishing the month at 46-37 and in the thick of a crowded division race.
Most impressively, the Giants dropped three big innings on the Dodgers amidst a weekend rout, beating them by a combined score of 29-10. All was looking good, except... the Giants were also kind of getting carried by their pitching. The Giants had an impressive +40 run differential on the month, but take away their 'big inning' games, and that margin dwindles to +10. And while that's, in a sense, cherry-picking, the Giants were still outperforming their opponents even when you took their best offensive performances away. As long as nobody took away their big innings, the Giants were serious postseason contenders.
Dry July
Aw, rats.
One. In 25 games last month, the Giants put up one big inning. In fairness, it was well-timed, a five-run 10th inning against Pittsburgh that helped them snag a quick extra-inning win. It was also essentially their highlight of the month, at least offensively.
In 17 of those 25 games, though, San Francisco scored 3 or fewer runs total. And this, at least from a results perspective, is why the Giants have easily had the worst offense in baseball for about forty days now. Their lack of power is probably a big factor, with a league-low 21 homers in the past month. If they get back to league average in power, the offense probably stops being as much of a concern. How they get there, though is unclear.
Injuries certainly ate at the Giants' front line in July, with Brandon Crawford, Thairo Estrada, and LaMonte Wade Jr. all missing time. Their absences made it clear that A.J. Pollock, Casey Schmitt, and Brett Wisely aren't starting options for a contending team in 2023. But even beyond them, clear starters like Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger simply aren't producing at their usual levels. Right now, it's going to take a team-wide improvement if the Giants want to avoid a repeat of 2009.
August Opportunity
So far, the Giants have matched their July total with Monday's surprise comeback win against Angels closer Carlos Estévez. That six-run outburst puts the Giants at 19-4 on the season when they record a big inning, with a run differential of +98 in those games. Simply put, the Giants need to be able to pounce on vulnerable pitchers, especially starters, if they want to right the ship and maintain their standing in a crowded Wild Card race.
Whether they can do so is, unfortunately, a complete unknown. With the A-Team taken care of (Arizona, Angels, and Athletics), the Giants are going to enter a gauntlet against the Rays, Rangers, Braves (twice), and Phillies. Conventional logic dictates that the Giants are going to struggle even more against this many legitimate playoff contenders. 2023 Giants logic states that they should be one of the best teams in baseball against >.500 teams. The last time they faced this kind of schedule, they boat-raced the entire NL West. Maybe Marco Luciano or Kyle Harrison give San Francisco a team-wide spark, or Conforto becomes the Jeff Kent to Wilmer Flores' Barry Bonds and carries the team into October.
Whatever the case, the SF Giants will surely need to recapture the Big Inning Magic. They just can't go the rest of the season being confident in their ability to win 2-1 games. So the next time the G-Men start stuffing some poor, unwitting reliever down the proverbial toilet, keep the big inning in mind. It just might be exactly what they need.
