SF Giants position preview: What will first base be without Brandon Belt?

The SF Giants Belt Wars are over.

Brandon Belt, the Giants’ incumbent first basemen for the last decade, has moved onto bluer pastures in Toronto. In his wake, he leaves a Gold Glove-sized void at first, and how the Giants address it will be a microcosm of the 2023 team. Can they succeed with another platoon-heavy approach in lieu of a full-season stalwart in the corner infield?

The early indications may be more optimistic than you’d think. Belt has been one of the most valuable first basemen in the league since 2020, but his 2022 was completely derailed by injury. Belt started only 58 games at first base, and both his offense and defense fell not just below his career norms, but below average. Hopefully, a change of scenery does him well in Toronto. For all involved, though - Belt included - pivoting away from his dismal 2022 season is addition by subtraction.

For the Giants, that means relying on Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr., who combined to play 67 games at first last year. They’ll be supported by David Villar, J.D. Davis, and a surprise entrant in Joc Pederson, who has recently begun practicing his first base skills in earnest.

The good news is that each of these players has shown the talent or experience to be a valuable part of a contending roster. Unlike other positions, though, there don’t seem to be any under-the-radar prospects poised to make a huge jump into the big leagues this year. If injury or ineffectiveness eats away at the Giants’ depth at first, expect them to be active with waiver claims and mid-season trades this year. With that said, let's take a deeper look at the merry band of misfits manning first base for the Giants in 2023, and how they fit into the grander scheme. For each player, we'll take a look at what they'll need to take a step forward, a step back, stay where they are, and what their absolute best-case scenario looks like.

LaMonte Wade Jr.

2022: 0.0 WAR, .207 AVG, .665 OPS, 77 G, .982 F% (Stat descriptions in Glossary)

“Late Night LaMonte” followed up a wildly successful 2021 with essentially a duplicate of Brandon Belt’s 2022 season - heavily impacted by injury, resulting in below-average offensive and defensive seasons. However, at only 29 years old, the Giants are banking on a return to form for Wade, who may very well lead the team in games played at first base this year.

Step Forward: Replacing Belt. Someone needs to step up and eat the bulk of the innings at first, and the betting money is on Wade, given that most everyone else will be splitting time around the infield. If Wade can exceed his career-high of 109 games in 2023, then above-average offense and a leading role going into 2023 should be on the table for him.

Step Backward: Late Night? Not open. Wade’s incredible 2021 performance came partly due to his timing, as he hit .565 with a 1.409 OPS in the 9th inning, but in “low-leverage” situations, he hit .192 with a .433 OPS, well below league average. Maybe he does somehow power up in tough situations, but if so, he didn’t find nearly enough of them last year, when he turned into a replacement player. If Wade can’t get that clutch gene back, or if he just can’t shake an injury bug, his spot on the roster won’t be guaranteed for next year, if he makes it that long.

Status Quo: The 50th percentile outcome here is that Wade helps keep the Giants afloat in a first base platoon, even if he doesn’t seem like he can do more than that. Wade’s only been in the league for four years, and one of them was 2020, so he has a bit of projectability on his side. More time spent at first and more time off the shelf should keep him productive enough that the Giants don’t have to worry about his roster spot, even if he doesn’t get any down-ballot MVP votes like he did in 2021.

Home Run: Lots of them. The Giants haven’t had a 30 home-run hitter since 2004, as you may have heard. Wade hit 18 home runs in 381 plate appearances in 2021, and in a full-time role, he could at least threaten that mark. For all the discussions about Wade’s floor, his ceiling is sky-high, and if he posts a career year, he could end up being this decade’s version of Aubrey Huff (on the field, anyways).

Wilmer Flores

2022: 0.6 WAR, .228 AVG, .710 OPS, 151 G, .990 F%

Your friend, Wilmer Flores. Despite middling rate stats, Flores was a key part of the Giants’ infield in 2022, splitting time at 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. His versatility and professionalism will likely keep him platooning across the infield, but with Belt gone, there’s a good chance his share of reps at first increase.

Step Forward: Ironically, a big step forward for the Giants would be that Flores doesn’t have to take a leading role at first base. They prefer to use his ability to cover multiple infield units to deploy mix-and-match strategies throughout series, and while they don’t really need to worry about overextending him, he’s particularly useful when he’s either stepping up in the right circumstance or allowing someone else to. For one of Zaidi’s first big contracts, he’s kind of following a Mark Melancon career path. In Major League Baseball, that’s a really good thing.

Step Backward: At first base specifically, you could argue that a step backwards would be injuries at other positions that force him to fill in or start at anywhere other than first for most of the season. More relevant, though, is that in 151 games last year, he graded out as barely more than a replacement player. Flores’ OPS hit a career mark in 2019, but has dropped ever since. If it keeps falling, he may be tough to stick with through 2024.

Status Quo: Flores will probably end up going through this season as the first backup option at first and second base, at least with the roster as currently constructed. Even if he doesn’t settle into any one particular role, he’s already a seasoned vet, and the gap between his floor and his ceiling should continue to narrow. He’s still a great insurance policy for pretty much the entire infield. You can survive relying on guys like Flores.

Home Run: But surviving and thriving are two different things. Flores is a pretty balanced player, so ideally you’d like to see him get his batting average back above his career average of .261. He’s not really liable to be a team’s greatest threat, but if you can put him in an overachieving lineup and still make opposing pitchers deal with a guy hitting .270 or so, he’s going to help make the Giants an absolute pain in the ass for the rest of the league, especially if he finally gets the right checked swing calls.

J.D. Davis

2022: 0.7 WAR, .248 AVG, .758 OPS, 115 G, .991 F%

The roster churn on this team has been wildly disorienting, but even the staunchest critic has to admit that Farhan Zaidi fleeced the Mets by trading for J.D. Davis. Even without considering the prospects involved, Davis excelled in San Francisco last year, batting .263 with 8 home runs in only 158 plate appearances, making it one of the most wildly productive trades of the Zaidi era. Davis spent about 40% of his time in SF last year at first, making him a key backup/platoon option at the corner infield spots.

Step Forward: Davis successfully integrates himself into the Giants' platoon-heavy system, spending equal time at first and third bases while getting a significant fraction of a starter's expected workload. If Davis' powerful bat remains a threat through 2023, he could offer the type of everyday presence that Giants fans have been craving for awhile now.

Step Backward: The Mets gave up Davis for very nearly the price of a polite nod and smile from Zaidi, which is extremely weird in today's analytics-driven world. It's not that they hated him, it's just that they thought he was extraneous. Just a guy, in other words. Looking at his stats, I'm not quite sure why - he hit .307 in 140 games in 2019, and his OPS has ranged between the mid-.700s and high-.800s in that time - but you'd have to think there's something there. If injury issues or diminished power at Oracle reduce Davis to Just a Guy, it could give the Giants another headache as to whether they should keep the roster wheel spinning, or settle for someone who isn't a needle-mover.

Status Quo: Given the depth at the corner infield positions, it's going to be hard for J.D. to make a splash and establish himself as a starter at either first or third. That's okay, though - the baseball season is long and full of strained hamstrings. These things sort themselves out over a full 162, and whether it's as a primary backup or a consistent pinch-hitting power threat, Davis will eventually find his niche on the 2023 Giants.

Home Run: J.D. Davis, your... starting first baseman? Given the murkiness at first, it's not the wildest outcome to imagine. If Villar starts the season strong and Wade Jr. scuffles, Davis could very well emerge as the most consistent option for the Giants at first base. If Davis finds stability there and uses it to find consistency with his glove and bat, then look out. It's not a situation the Giants should depend on playing out, but it's better than expecting Joc Pederson to start at first. Speaking of...

Joc Pederson

2022: 1.3 WAR, .274 AVG, .874 OPS, 134 G

The Giants have had options at designated hitter for the last couple of years. But there’s a difference between starters who can use a DH stint as pseudo-rest days or ways to avoid the IL, and guys with defensive limitations who can nevertheless be an absolute threat with the bat. Pederson is emphatically the latter. Despite hitting .274 and putting up a gaudy 23 home runs in 380 at-bats, Pederson’s time in the outfield significantly impacted his overall production. This year, it appears that Joc will take some reps at first base instead. If he can remain a fixture at DH while providing even average defense in short stints at first, he’ll be one of the most valuable players in the NL West.

Step Forward: If Pederson can bank up practice reps at first base going into the season and debut later on without incident, his part here will have been an unmitigated success. There’s no question about how potent his bat is - it’s the two wins of value he gave up on defense last year that made his $18 million qualifying offer so surprising. If that defense is no longer (or simply less of) a problem at first base, then he's going to make a lot of money this offseason.

Step Backward: We should’ve seen this coming. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that putting Pederson on the field only results in cringeworthy errors and frustrating defensive sequences reminiscent of last year. If so, the best case scenario is that he’s constrained to the DH role, and can’t provide the versatility that this front office craves. In the worst case, the Giants need his bat and need the depth, and you’ll spend a few nights wanting to eat your remote.

Status Quo: For some players, the status quo is an expectation. For Pederson, it’s a sigh of relief. He’s played 20 games at first in his career, so expecting him to light up the defensive side at first is pretty unlikely. But if Pederson can fill in at first every so often, even with subpar defense, he’ll be enough of an asset to make the Giants better in 2023. He just can’t cost the Giants games when he’s out there.

Home Run: What if Pederson is a good first baseman? It’s a strange thought, but #ForeverGiant Adam Duvall went from an okay first baseman to a Gold Glove left fielder, and I still don’t think anyone knows how that happened. Maybe there’s a reverse-karma pattern going on here where Joc will exceed expectations at first? If it turns out that Pederson is an asset at first base, then it blows the doors wide open on what you can expect from this team.

David Villar

2022: 1.3 WAR, .231 AVG, .787 OPS, 52 G, .986 F%

Like Pederson, Villar shouldn’t be expected to fill in too heavily at first base - in his call-up year of 2022, Villar showed enough to be the incumbent at third going into this season. But depending on how things shake out, it’s not unreasonable for Villar to end up playing a handful of games at first. When he does, it’ll be a good learning experience for him to handle both sides of the corner infield.

Step Forward: Villar proved that he can be an explosive player in 2022. If he can be a versatile one as well, he could force the Giants to carve out a role for him for years to come. His future is still wide open, so it’s possible that the Giants love what they see out of Villar and make him their franchise first baseman. Villar wouldn’t even need to improve on an 120 OPS+ to force his way into the kind of regular starter role that fans have been clamoring for the past few years.

Step Backward: The dreaded sophomore slump. It’s hit players with more talent than Villar, and there’s nothing quite like the first time the entire MLB has a book on you and makes their adjustments to you in the offseason. Villar could very possibly scuffle in the early part of the season and not re-emerge until later, similar to Bart last year, in which case any time at first base could come at the expense of his long-term improvement elsewhere on the diamond.

Status Quo: Optimistic! If Villar keeps hitting well, develops into a viable long-term option at third who can fill in at first with only a mild drop in production, Villar should be in the Giants’ plans for awhile. He might not turn into the home run demon that he hinted at last year, but Villar’s ascension from an 11th-round 2018 draft pick to an MLB starter would be a well-needed story for this organization.

Home Run: But what if he does turn into that home run demon? Villar’s power was evident last year, despite a .231 batting average. If he can bump the average up slightly, those home runs are going to fall even across an entire regular season. An everyday role for Villar with 2021 numbers could put him at 34 home runs over 600 at-bats. That kind of production would turn Villar into a homegrown star on the level of the Brandons. There'd be no argument against those kind of results, even if only a handful of them come out of the first base position.

Glossary:

WAR - Wins Above Replacement (as calculated by Baseball Reference)

BA - Batting Average

OPS - On Base % + Slugging %

G - Games Played

F% - Fielding percentage (% of plays without an error) - 2022 1B defense only