SF Giants rookie power rankings: From Patrick Bailey to Heliot Ramos
When the SF Giants began the 2023 season, their roster looked remarkably different. The bullpen featured little youth outside of Jakob Junis, Matt Beaty and David Villar were manning the infield, and Roberto Perez was the Giants' big backup to Joey Bart. Blake Sabol and Sean Hjelle were carrying the torch of expectations, and neither of them probably expected the season they've had so far.
With the All-Star Break approaching and multiple months of playing time in the books for the many faces that have joined the Giants since then, it's a great time to take a look at the rooks and evaluate what they've done so far. This power rankings is an unofficial and non-exhaustive look at what these players have done so far, but loosely speaking, looks at who Giants fans should be most comfortable with starting (or relieving) an important game. In addition, we'll consider what the worst and best-case scenarios for each player look like, and what that means to a San Francisco team deep in the middle of a playoff hunt.
Second-year rookies will be denoted with an * next to their names.
SF Giants catcher Patrick Bailey hits a walk-off home run against the Mets. (2023)
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
1. Patrick Bailey (C)
2023 stats: .302 BA, 5 HR, .847 OPS, 38.7% CS
If there's anyone on this list who already looks like a bona-fide star, it's Patrick Bailey. Like many of the players on this list, Bailey came on strong, hitting .333 by the end of his first month with surprisingly good defense. Unlike almost everyone else, he never stopped. There were supposed to be issues with his switch hitting when he came up. Instead, he's hitting .260 versus righties and .471(!!) against lefties. His defense was a work in progress, and you'll see him miss or drop balls, even ones in the strike zone. He's still in the 96th percentile of baseball as a framer. He's even better unloading the ball, which is why he sports a ridiculous 38.7% caught stealing rate. He can do everything, which rookies really aren't supposed to do.
The worst case scenario here is that he's human. For someone doing this well, that's far, far closer to the more likely scenario. His .143 average in July, for example, is pretty rough - but that's also just four games, with his OPS above .700 in his last seven. Maybe he hits a metaphorical wall, and his batting average and defensive statistics fall to a more reasonable level. But that still seems damn valuable, and demotion is almost certainly out of the question.
The best case scenario? Heck, he just needs to keep doing this. He's fourth amongst catchers in OPS (min. 30 games). He's fourth in catchers in caught stealing % (min. 100 innings). His overall performance since he was called up has arguably been top-3 at his position, which is ridiculous for any rookie, let alone one at a premium defensive position. Maybe he pumps out a few more clutch home runs, and the Era of Bailey is officially here. The comparisons to Buster have already begun to swirl.
Bonus: this was the same game!
2. Blake Sabol (C/LF/DH)
2023 stats: .251 BA, 10 HR, .751 OPS, 40.2 Hard-Hit%
Sabol has been, if you'll pardon the melodrama, a revelation. He was a surprise acquisition in the Rule 5 draft, where you can steal other team's lower minors players... if you think you can keep them on your roster for an entire season. With Sabol, the bat showed promise, but the defense was sketchy at best. With a team jam-packed with catching options, could he be any more than a Mike Ford fling?
Flash forward to July, and Sabol is easily the hottest hitter on the Giants. While the rest of the offense is folding, Sabol is doing his best Aaron Judge impression as he tries to single-handedly pull San Francisco to victory. On Monday, he drove in all five of the Giants' runs against Seattle. He gives up runs with his glove. He earns them back, with interest, at the plate. He's a modern-day Mike Morse, and he's only 25. There's a lot of potential here.
There's also a lot of ways this goes sour. The inexperience behind the plate can be maddening, especially when Bailey and Joey Bart are hanging around. He's not much more than a Travis Ishikawa type in left, and his huge power is streaky. He went 55 at-bats in May without a home run, and then followed it with another 56 at-bat drought in June. If his playing time is edged out by Bailey, he might never grow into a decent defender at catcher. Sabol has the potential to be more than a backup piece, but this situation might not be the one to unlock it.
On the other hand, he's a hard-working and young player without much catching experience, and leaning into his strengths as a DH-er might be a great way to give him the runway to learn the intricacies of defense while being a constant threat with the bat. Any halfway-decent catcher with halfway-decent hitting is already a valuable commodity, and Sabol's already head of the pack on the back end of that. If he can continue developing his game the way he has been, he'll be a major part of the Giants' roster construction for the foreseeable future. It'll help if he keeps hitting massive bombs, too.
3. Tristan Beck (RHP)
2023 stats: 3.20 ERA, 2.92 K:BB, 45.0 IP, 1.20 WHIP
Tristan Beck starts a small run of pitching prospects here, as his outstanding start in 2+ months of work earns him a spot high on the rookie prospect rankings. Beck started off slow, but posted an ERA of 2.89 in May and an even better mark of 2.20 in June. His body of work (2.92 K:BB, 1.20 WHIP) bodes well for him being a key piece of the bullpen going into the back half of the season.
The biggest concern for Beck is less of a fall and more of a slide. He's had a few troubled outings recently - a 3 ER, 2.1 IP go against Arizona and five baserunners in 2.1 innings of work vs. New York come to mind. Are these likely to herald the end of Good Tristan Beck as we know it? Probably not. But Beck is a rookie, and the league will eventually figure out his tendencies, probably before the season is over. Can he survive the grueling trek through August and September, and will he make whatever adjustments are necessary to stay on the roster up to and into the playoffs? That isn't ever a guarantee.
Still, Beck's been one of the most consistent options in the bullpen this year, and a true "glue" guy that's helped make a seemingly ramshackle approach to bullpen construction work. It seems like there are about 8 long relievers on the squad, but that wouldn't work nearly as well as it has without guys like Beck playing the role of mid-rotation starter for a few innings every couple of days. What Beck and the Giants are doing is new in the grand scheme of things, so it's hard to know how it will all turn out. The answer, as they say, might surprise you.
SF Giants righty Keaton Winn throws a pitch. (2023)
Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports
4. Keaton Winn (RHP)
2023 stats: 4.09 ERA, 2.80 K:BB, 22.0 IP, 1.05 WHIP
Slotting Winn was tough, given the 'meh' ERA and excellent WHIP. He hasn't been dominant, but he's been more than good enough on the majority of occasions. Consider the fact that he's begun slotting in as a true starter, and this whole appraisal gets a lot more interesting. I ended up putting him fourth, because the value he could offer to the team as a starter means he could really be one of the team's standout pieces over the next month or two.
The downside is pretty clear. Winn's sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions, and he could end up being far more of a Jakob Junis than a... well, Tristan Beck, I suppose. He's not on the top of this list because he hasn't proven yet that he's going to survive the back half of the season without getting sent down. He's an option, which the Giants love, but soon enough, you still have to choose between your options. Winn might be a peanut butter sandwich, but champions need lobster dinner.
But all that scuttlebutt is probably overstated, considering his peripherals. His command is solid, and he's not allowing a ton of runners on. The ERA will more than likely come down, and even if he hits some bumps as an unexpected starter, his ceiling is much higher than he's been able to show in just five games at the major league level. He could morph into a solid fourth/fifth starter to settle the Giants' rotation for the next couple of years... or he could be dealt at the deadline for a player who can really push the Giants forward. Either way, the value potential is up, up, up.
5. Ryan Walker (RHP)
2023 stats: 2.57 ERA, 3.29 K:BB, 21.0 IP, 1.48 WHIP
Tough beat for Walker, whose 2.57 ERA is only that high because his latest outing saw him give up a home run in New York. Walker has been nails for most of the year, both as an impact short-inning reliever and when he took over the opener role after Brebbia's injury. The peripherals are a little rough - you'd like to see opposing batters hit less than .283 against him, which is contributing to the higher WHIP - but in terms of effectiveness, Walker's done his job and then some.
Like Winn, Walker had a tough time out in his last outing versus the Mets. It may just be a blip, but there's also been a broader pattern of the Giants' excellent pitching starting to slip in the last couple of weeks. It's too much to expect every reliever to continue pitching as well as they have, and Walker is going to get hit against if he doesn't make some adjustments. It wouldn't surprise me to see him struggle in the postseason, or even later on in the year when games start getting truly intense.
But if Walker can fill Brebbia's opener role for the next few months while the elder reliever nurses back to health, things could break just right for San Francisco. They'll have two months of effective opening for their bulk starter strategy, a weapon to slot into the back of the bullpen that opponents haven't seen for a time, and a potential successor to Brebbia after his contract expires. That's getting pretty fine with things, but a middle-relief version of the Buster-to-Bailey transition would make Padres and Dodgers fans too mad for us to ignore here.
6. Luis Matos (OF)
2023 stats: .246 BA, 1 HR, .667 OPS, 2 SB
Back to the position players! Matos, like many of his peers, started off strong but fell into a slump as he started facing more major-league pitching. He hasn't been overall impressive, but his OPS has held around the mid-.600s, and he's provided solid defense in center field. He's a 21-year-old prospect who's at least able to hang with the big boys. If he can make that mean something, the Giants are cooking.
Of course, Matos probably won't be serving balls into stands very often, even if he shows enough to stick around through September. His expected slugging is a bit higher than it is now, but he's still only hit one dinger in 65 at-bats. Matos' value comes from his all-around utility right now, but it'll be awhile before home runs are part of that kit. The words "Chile Davis" should be running through your mind until Matos makes his first All-Star team, and not a moment sooner. Matos might have decent sprint speed and a good arm in center, but he's not Corbin Carroll out there.
Still, Matos is making a great first impression as a contact-first outfielder with potential to grow. He's striking out just 13.7% of the time, well under the major-league average. With his athleticism, good things will happen more often than not when he puts the ball into play. If Matos finds a way to elevate the ball a bit or start squaring it up with frequency, those All-Star chants might not be that far away.
SF Giants shortstop Casey Schmitt slides safely home against the Phillies. (2023)
D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
7. Casey Schmitt (SS/2B/3B)
2023 stats: .229 BA, 2 HR, .592 OPS, 94.1 MPH Max Putout Throw
Casey Schmitt, what will we do with ye? Schmitt was perhaps the Giants' brightest star this year, hitting .325 with a .799 OPS in May. Since then, those offensive numbers have cratered. Schmitt's OPS has been just .397 over the last 30 days, .313 in the last 15 days, and .100 over the past week. He'd be absolutely unplayable if it weren't for his defense, which has remained sterling. He's had one of the strongest and most consistent arms while playing on the left side of the infield, and he helped close out the final Mariners game with an exquisite sliding play at second base.
The bottom that threatens to fall out is his bat. Schmitt surely isn't so bad that a batting average below the Mendoza line is his definite future, but we've already seen high profile prospects struggle offensively in strange ways in the past few years. Schmitt's platoon splits are glaring, and setting him up against right-handers seems foolish at this point. It's possible he may need more experience to smooth out those inconsistencies in his game.
There's still reason to think that Schmitt could be the Giants' biggest 2023 addition ten years down the line. Schmitt has shown the damage he can do with his aggressive swing; he just needs to refine it to the point where opposing pitchers aren't stealing easy strikes off of him. It might not be fair to say that his glove rivals Crawford's already, but he can throw out anyone in the league at first with the power and accuracy in his right arm. If the Giants find the proper role for him as he continues to battle and develop at the major-league level, Schmitt won't be going anywhere for a long time.
8. Brett Wisely (2B/CF)
2023 stats: .188 BA, 2 HR, .528 OPS, 2 SB
Wisely has been the kind of Swiss Army Knife, utility player that any team needs, playing a respectable second base and center field. Unfortunately, he's also not seasoned enough to be more than a AAAA replacement guy filling in for a hole in the roster. That's not entirely his fault, given that he's just eclipsed four years in professional baseball. The question remains how much time he needs to reach his ceiling, and whether the Giants are going to be able to give it to him.
The downside to Wisely is pretty clear - the .528 OPS kind of speaks for itself. Unlike guys like Schmitt and Matos, Wisely never had a hot start to hang his hat on. He hit .059 in April, .213 in May, and got sent down to AAA at the start of June. Right now, he would be lucky to tread water in his time at the big league level. Development is never linear, but it's entirely possible that given his struggles, putting the pressure on him to make the kind of breakthroughs he needs to survive in the majors could seriously mess with his growth.
On the other hand, the biggest thing separating Wisely from the other top prospects is not having a hot start to lean on. It's entirely possible that Wisely goes on a heater in July, bringing his stats up alongside his peers and giving him a hot streak to work off of. He'd fill the same role that Mauricio Dubón filled in 2021, which would make San Francisco feel better about that trade. The Giants need production in the middle infield and possibly outfield. The fit is there, if Wisely finds a way to step up.
9. Bryce Johnson* (CF)
2023 stats: .163 BA, 1 HR, .485 OPS, 3 SB
When I traveled to preview the Giants' prospects in early May, Bryce Johnson was in the midst of his concussion recovery. While at Sacramento, I saw Johnson absolutely lighting up the box score, terrorizing the opposition with every tool in his kit. I thought he was ready. But alas, when he returned to San Francisco just a few days later, those accomplishments didn't stick. He hit just .200 in May, and got few chances to hit while being sent up and down in June and July.
Johnson is on the older side for a prospect, which is really not what you want for an outfielder that doesn't have much success with the bat. His speed is top-notch, but if that's all he really has to offer, then there's not much room for him at the major-league level. With higher-ceiling options to patrol the outfield, we may not see much of Johnson for the rest of the year.
But the potential is there. Johnson has made outstanding appearances in Spring Training and at AAA this year. He was drafted six years ago, and it took Logan Webb seven to become the ace that he's turned into. At his best, Johnson could be a force in the outfield, even if in a reserve role. But he's got a leap to make before he gets there.
10. Cole Waites* (RHP)
2023 stats: 15.43 ERA, 1.00 K:BB, 2.1 IP, 3.43 WHIP
Cole Waites is a big dude with big velocity and even greater extension in his delivery. He came up for a bit in May, got shelled, and got sent back down. He's giving up runs in Sacramento, but opponents hit just .188 against him in June and a meager .083 in three appearances in July. By the stats, Waites needs to come back and make some serious headway, but in terms of stuff, it's not out of the question that he's back up and contributing sometime in September.
The pros and cons here are pretty short. Worst-case? A pitcher with a 15.43 ERA doesn't make it in the majors, at least not this year. He's a two-pitch guy, and that combination doesn't work unless you're always in command of your pitches. Still, being able to run 98-86 back-to-back is a pretty impressive skill. When he refines his stuff, Waites will certainly be back.
11. Sean Hjelle* (RHP)
2023 stats: 7.79 ERA, 1.75 K:BB, 17.1 IP, 2.08 WHIP
Despite the encouraging signs in 2022, it became clear that Hjelle simply wasn't ready for a full season in 2023. His 7.79 ERA was a huge contributor to the Giants' rocky start to the season, and he's been back with Sacramento since early May. It's a disappointing outcome for someone with back-of-the-rotation potential, but it might not be more than a bump in the road. Hjelle had a rough start, but there have been encouraging signs for him down in AAA.
One of the biggest developments is that Hjelle's been stretched out as the year's gone on. When he got sent down in May, he was limited to three-inning starts. That number's gone up, though, and his most recent outing was a six-inning, one-run effort against Reno. The results haven't always been there (his ERA rose nearly a point and a half in June), but it's one step closer to a path back to the Giants for Hjelle.
12. Heliot Ramos* (LF)
2023 stats: .192 BA, 0 HR, .491 OPS, 50.0 Hard-Hit%
Speaking of rocky paths, Ramos has seen his fair share of chocolate, marshmallow, and almond. He's struggled greatly in his limited time with the Giants, putting up an OPS below .500 despite hitting the ball decently well. His time in the minors was further derailed by injury, and he spent a few days recuperating while playing with the San Jose Giants (A-ball). He's only recently made it back to Sacramento to continue his development.
Still, Ramos is a 23 year-old prospect with a .313 batting average and .949 OPS in his multiple minor-league assignments this year. The worst-case and best-case scenario don't look all that different, with Ramos likely taking the rest of the year to concentrate on improving outside San Francisco. Perhaps more than anyone else on this list, Ramos is a prime candidate to support the Giants in another prospect surge in 2024. Until then, fans will continue to dream on his potential.
