Rumors: SF Giants, Padres were in on Justin Verlander trade discussions

Before Justin Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros on Monday, the SF Giants reportedly talked to the New York Mets about bringing in the veteran right-hander.

Padres and Giants out on Verlander. Oh yeah Giants were in for a sec
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) August 1, 2023

Andy Martino reported that the Giants and San Diego Padres were both "out on Verlander," just minutes before sources reported that the Astros and Mets had a deal in place for the three-time Cy Young winner. And the price wasn't cheap.

Full trade, per ESPN sources:

Astros receive: RHP Justin Verlander.

Mets receive: OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford.

Deal is done.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 1, 2023

Drew Gilbert was Houston's first-round pick in the 2022 draft, a speedy center fielder that MLB.com ranked as the 68th-best prospect in baseball. After an elbow injury ended his 2022 minor league season early, Gilbert raked at Single-A Asheville, hitting .360/.421 /.686, before struggling somewhat in Double-A.

Clifford might even be a better prospect than Gilbert. The Astros took him in the 11th round, but gave him a $1.2 million bonus to convince him not to attend Vanderbilt.

Ryan Clifford big breakdown later but he is a massive massive get for the Mets.

Was committed to Vandy heading into last draft and the Astros dropped $1.2M bonus on his head as an 11th round pick to convince him to come.

16 HR and .356 OBP as 19 year old in A+.
— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) August 1, 2023

Clifford is also hitting well at High-A this season, slashing .271/.356/.547. The difference is that he just turned 20 years old two weeks ago. With Gilbert's $2.5 million signing bonus, the Astros are cutting bait on $3.7 million in draft spending from last year.

The Mets are picking up a large portion of Verlander's two-year, $86.7 million contract, which will add a third year at $35 million should Verlander pitch at least 140 innings next season.

Verlander is owed ~$58 million in 2023-24, of which the Mets will pay $35 million, per source. If Verlander's $35 million option for 2025 vests, the Mets will pick up $17.5 million, bringing their total to $52.5 million in the trade - all of which will count against their CBT.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) August 1, 2023

Even though Verlander won the Cy Young Award last year for Houston, the Astros decided to stick with their seemingly-deep young rotation for 2023. But when starters Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. suffered season-ending elbow injuries, and José Urquidy hurt his shoulder, the Astros suddenly needed their old ace back.

Verlander hasn't been as good as he was in 2022, pitching to a 3.15 ERA in 94.1 innings over 16 starts. He's striking out 7.7 per nine innings, his lowest rate since 2015, but he's been the Verlander of old in July.

For the month, he's 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 37.1 innings over six starts. Verlander is holding hitters to .167/.257/.220 splits and has yielded just one homer in the month. He's still walking more batters than he has in ten years, but Verlander is looking like a solid rotation starter again, if not quite a Cy Young winner again yet.

Could the Giants have really added Verlander? It's not clear he would have waived his full no-trade clause to go to San Francisco, rather than back to the city where he played from 2017-2022. He reportedly has a good relationship with Astros owner Jim Crane, and they've won two world championships together. And going back to Oracle Park might have given the ace traumatic flashbacks to facing Pablo Sandoval in the 2012 World Series.

It's also not clear the Giants had the same willingness to deal prospects that the Astros did, who are half a game back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West. After the Rangers traded for Verlander's Mets teammate Max Scherzer, the pressure was on for Houston to reload in hopes of repeating as champs.

Assuming Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison were off the table, a Verlander deal would have cost the Giants something like Carson Whisenhunt and Grant McCray, or even a third top prospect. Still, Houston's record is only two games better than the Giants but they're far ahead on aggressiveness.

Arguably the Giants have a surplus of pitchers, even given their regular reliance on openers. But every team in baseball could use an innings-eating ace like Verlander. Houston simply had more willingness to pay - both in dollars and prospects.