MLB insider predicts SF Giants will sign Matt Chapman or Blake Snell
Fans around the league are anxiously awaiting the signing of the top remaining free agents, mostly represented by superagent Scott Boras. The SF Giants have been tied to the biggest names all offseason, already landing center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (#9-ranked free agent) and designated hitter Jorge Soler (#13-ranked free agent). However, they may not be done yet. During an appearance on "Foul Territory," MLB insider Jon Heyman noted that the Giants remain in contact with Boras and predicted they will land at least one of two big names.
"If I were to guess today, I would say Giants," Heyman said when asked to predict Matt Chapman's landing spot. "They're still talking to these guys. I know they said they don't expect to sign anybody, but I think the Giants are going to sign somebody. Whether it's [Blake] Snell or Chapman or both of them."
This is far from the first time a prominent insider has tied the Giants to Boras' top remaining free agent clients. ESPN's Jeff Passan made a nearly identical prediction in the first week of January. Earlier this week, Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants were having internal conversations about the two players, citing one source that placed the odds of signing one over the other at an even 50-50.
Chapman has been consistently tied to the Giants throughout the offseason while Snell has seemed like an obvious fit, especially since the Giants traded multiple veteran starters this offseason.
While Chapman became a household name as a star with the Oakland A's early in his career, playing for Giants manager Bob Melvin, he remained a top third baseman with the Toronto Blue Jays. His offensive numbers have taken a step back over the past few seasons, but he remains elite defensively and has graded out well by Statcast's advanced metrics, helping him remain a player worth 2-4.5 WAR per season depending on the calculation method.
Even with his dip in production, though, Chapman is one of the few power-hitters in MLB who Statcast projects to have hit significantly more home runs at Oracle Park than he actually did in each of the past three seasons (86 versus 71). The opposite is true of nearly every other power hitter in the league.
Snell is coming off a Cy Young season with the Giants division-rival in San Diego. However, the two-time Cy Young winner partially remains unsigned because he has never strung together elite seasons in back-to-back years. Snell has averaged a 3.02 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 143 innings pitched per season over the past six years. While that is clearly a high-quality pitcher, it's also not ace-level production.
Still, the Giants projected rotation currently includes one pitcher who has ever thrown more than 90 innings in a MLB season (Logan Webb). Pairing Webb with Snell would give Melvin one of the best 1-2 punches in the league atop his rotation, and would give the pitching staff an incredible ceiling between top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison and the eventual returns of veteran starters Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray.
SF Giants have come to know the offseason rumor cycle well over the past few years. Jon Heyman, especially, has been at the center of generating plenty of hope and excitement about potential moves that never came to fruition. From Arson Judge to his recent J.D. Martinez report, Heyman is far from the most trustworthy insider in the industry. However, his comments reiterate that the organization is in contact with Boras regarding his top clients. Maybe Matt Chapman and Blake Snell will be top free agents that actually end up landing in San Francisco.
