SF Giants free-agent breakdown: Fukuoka Hawks RHP Kodai Senga
The offseason is officially underway. But between all the talk about Aaron Judge and Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, and Joey Gallo, one of the biggest names in free agency already tied to the SF Giants this year is someone you might never have heard of - Kodai Senga.
Last week, our very own Marc Delucchi uncovered a major nugget of information, revealing 10,000 square feet of evidence that the Giants were hosting the overseas superstar. On Oracle Park’s video board, an action shot of Senga in a Giants uniform, paired with his name and number in bold orange and white, teased at San Francisco’s interest in acquiring the hard-throwing hurler. The discovery even prompted a chagrined shout-out from Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi himself, who lamented that they’d have to find a way to hide their preparations better in the future.
All of which begs the question - just who is Kodai Senga?
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Senga is one of the best pitchers in the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball Organization), Japan’s highest level of pro baseball, which has seen names like Ichiro Suzuki, Shohei Ohtani, and Seiya Suzuki migrate to America and thrive with MLB teams. Since his NPB debut in 2012, Senga has been one of the league’s stars, posting the second-best ERA in the league last year with a 1.94 ERA in 144 innings pitched. He has a terrific strikeout rate of 10.0 per nine innings and has excelled at keeping the ball in the park, posting a career 0.70 HR/9 rate.
Senga, like many other international players, provides a fascinating puzzle of scouting and risk for MLB teams to assess. A superstar in his home country, Senga has nevertheless had his sights set on playing in the US, taking advantage of an opt-out clause in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks to position himself as a free agent this offseason. In doing so, he’s leaving a $5.3 million salary with the Hawks, indicating a high level of faith in himself to perform at a high level in the United States.
Any team interested in Senga, though, must be at least a little wary when evaluating his performance in the NPB. The simple truth is that there’s no easy way to directly translate statistics from other leagues to find out how they’ll perform in the MLB. Shohei Ohtani translated a career 2.55 ERA and 1.094 WHIP with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters into a career 2.96 ERA and 1.090 WHIP with the Angels. Yu Darvish, another successful import from the NPB, posted a sparkling 1.99 ERA with the Fighters, but just a 3.50 ERA while bouncing around the MLB. Every player transitions differently, and even a successful tenure in the U.S. might not amount to being a difference-maker that pushes a team over a playoff, pennant, or championship hump.
So what makes teams think that Senga might be worth investing in, even as a relatively unknown quantity? That starts with his fastball, a high-90’s offering that can touch triple digits, and velocity like that will play no matter where you go. Senga pairs that fastball with a split-finger pitch so deceptive that it’s earned its own moniker - the Ghost Fork. Senga’s mysterious Ghost Fork has consistently been the most valuable pitch in his arsenal throughout his career, and he supplements it with a decent curveball that may end up being a backup pitch that allows him to remain as a starter in the MLB.
While the talent is tantalizing, the variance involved makes contract projections difficult. Senga does have a few things in his favor when it comes to contract talks, though. Considering the current landscape of highly-talented-but-old-or-injured pitchers in free agency this year, Senga may offer the best upside of talent and durability on the market.
Estimates of Senga’s future contract vary. Jen McCaffrey, Red Sox staff writer, projects 4 years/$55M or 5 years/$65M. National reporter Keith Law puts him at 4 years/$80M, while ex-GM Jim Bowden pegs the market for Senga at 3 years/$72M. Say that Senga and the Giants are mutually interested, and the bidding doesn’t go super high. Would Senga make sense for the Giants on a 4 year/$70M deal?
There are two ways to answer that question. The first is, will Senga make the Giants better in 2023? And the answer to that is, yes, absolutely. Even in the worst-case scenario, Senga should be more valuable than Jakob Junis at the back of the rotation. There’s more than enough in his arsenal to believe that even in an average case, he’ll be an effective mid-rotation starter who’s still in his physical prime.
The second way of answering that question is whether or not Senga makes the Giants $20 million dollars better, and that’s a much harder question to answer. Personally, I hope that the Giants sign Senga, if only to reveal more about their strategy for attacking roster acquisitions in the long term. It wasn’t long ago that Zaidi declined to match a 5-year, $100 million pact for Kevin Gausman - a supremely talented pitcher who’d proven his effectiveness in the Giants’ organization- a decision that many Giants fans are still bemoaning.
Would Zaidi be willing to extend beyond his curiously specific 3-year maximum for pitching deals to get Senga? There’s certainly a world in which Senga takes a few more dollars on one less year to pitch for a team he’s excited about. But it’s probably more likely than not that Senga has his own parameters for the kind of deal he’s looking for, and the Giants’ front office might not be willing to meet them. They may fear that if Senga’s control doesn’t translate to the MLB, he’ll be pushed into a two-pitch reliever role; highly effective, but not worth the $15-20M a year on their books.
Ultimately, Senga would be a decent fit on any team given his notably high ceiling, but the Giants face the same issues that every other team faces when trying to sign a high-profile overseas free agent. San Francisco might (might) be first on Senga’s list, but first place in a crowded plurality is not nearly a guarantee. The Giants will have to balance their own internal research and uncertainties with Senga’s desires, and if the Giants do sign him, it will be a fascinating glimpse into the team’s long-term capacity for fielding a contending roster.
If “Seng Francisco” is a thing, then he’ll unequivocally make the SF Giants a better team next year, while giving the team an international fan favorite to spark interest in a team that’s seen attendance naturally slip over the past few years. Kodai Senga would make an excellent addition to a team that’s constantly betting on itself to get the most out of pitchers with elite talent. Say it with me, everyone.
Ghost Fork.
