Breaking Down the Difficult Decision the Indians Will Face with Carlos Santana’s 2021 Option

Whether or not we get baseball this summer, there’s one thing we know for sure -- the Cleveland Indians are about to take a massive financial hit.

Obviously that’s not exclusive to just them, as this spans across the entire league. Should MLB proceed with its plan to host the season in Arizona sans fans, no revenue will be generated from ticket sales or in-stadium purchases. Should there be no season at all...well, I’m not sure it needs to be explained why that’d result in losses.

Either way, some difficult decisions are on Cleveland’s horizon, and they’ll be present even if we have baseball this summer.

Sure, there’s the obvious task of determining what to do with Francisco Lindor as he approaches his last year of team control. That said, as Zack Meisel of The Athletic noted earlier this week, there’s another player who may be impacted by revenue decreases.

Carlos Santana has one year remaining on his contract after this season, a $17.5 million club option. Under normal circumstances, one would think Cleveland picks it up, especially considering how well he’s performed during his nine years in an Indians uniform.

Now, with significant losses all but guaranteed, said scenario is one Meisel no longer sees as a sure thing.

When breaking the situation down, it’s just as easy to make an argument for picking up Santana’s option as it is to see why Cleveland would choose to decline it. What it’ll come down to is which side of the pro/con list holds more weight in the eyes of the front office.

As far as pros go, the year Santana just put forth is right at the top of the list.

While Lindor opened the season on the IL and Jose Ramirez fought through a brutal slump, Santana served as the Indians’ 2019 MVP. He finished the year with his best slash line (.281/.397/.515) and gained his first ever All-Star bid and Silver Slugger award, all while generating with the highest fWAR of his career (4.4).

Cleveland’s start to the 2019 season was rocky to say the least. Without Santana, it would’ve been considerably worse.

Likewise, there are routes the Indians can take to find some financial wiggle room, something they’d likely explore considering Santana is one of the longest tenured members of the team.

Both Domingo Santana ($5 million) and Brad Hand ($10 million) have 2021 options the Tribe could consider declining. Likewise, it’s doubtful the team will re-up second baseman César Hernández for another one-year, $6.25 million deal.

At the same time, do the Indians feel confident enough in the idea of not replacing Hernández, instead moving top prospect Nolan Jones up to the big leagues despite the fact he hasn’t made a single Triple-A appearance?

Do they believe either James Karinchak or Emmanuel Clase is ready to take over as closer, thus making Hand expendable?

Additionally, is it safe to assume the Indians would make all these moves -- declining options, fast-tracking prospects -- just to make it easier to digest the eight figure salary of a player who’d be entering his age-35 season?

This makes for a good transition into the argument against picking up Santana’s option.

Yes, Cleveland’s first baseman just logged the best year of his career. That said, is it safe to assume Santana would be able to replicate those numbers -- or even come close to doing so -- in his eleventh big league season?

It’s difficult to effectively answer now, but it’s something I looked into earlier this year. As shown in the chart below, what Santana did last year fits into a pattern we’ve seen across his entire career.

Barring a few exceptions, Santana’s slash line, wOBA and especially his wRC+ tend to peak, then decline over the next two seasons before spiking back up again. This trend indicates his impressive 2019 could be followed by declines. Prognosticators agreed with this, as FanGraphs, Steamer and ZiPS each projected statistical drops for Santana in 2020.

Obviously there’s no guarantee this happens. Likewise, this is hardly meant to devalue Santana. Even his “off” years featured above average numbers in OBP, OPS and wRC+.

What it’s instead meant to highlight is how difficult this decision is going to be for the Indians.

The reality is they’ll be entering next offseason having suffered significant revenue losses while needing to consider paying $17.5 million for a player on the wrong side of his prime whose career trends hint at productivity dips.

Some fans may feel it’s crazy to even bring up the idea of declining Santana’s option. That said, in a year where any baseball games we get will take place without paying customers, these are the kinds of decisions Cleveland will be forced to consider.

Overall, the Indians know Santana can be productive for them. What they need to determine is if they think he’ll be productive enough to make $17.5 million a worthy investment. Especially after a year in which the team takes a massive financial hit.

As you can see, it's a decision which isn't as easy as you'd initially think.