Indians Roundtable: How Does the Staff See the AL Central Standings Turning Out in 2020?

Baseball is going to be very different for the 2020 season, and while the Minnesota Twins remain as the likely favorite according to many, there's four other teams that are going to try and matchup and take the title of "AL Central Champs" away from them. Here's how our staff sees the AL Central playing out in the 60-game 2020 season.

The 2020 Major League Baseball season is going to be one of the most interesting in the history of the game, if for nothing else than the fact fans won’t be in the stands, and there’s a whole new set of rules to keep players and teams in general healthy.

The current plan is for a 60-game regular season, and it will be a lot more of a sprint than the normal baseball marathon that we are all use to.

The AL Central is going to be a fun race to watch, as the Indians try to unseat the Minnesota Twins who came on last season to win the division before being beat in the divisional round by the New York Yankees.

Today in our roundtable with the staff of “Cleveland Baseball Insider” we ask for your predictions for the AL Central and just how our staff sees it lining up as well as why.

T.J. Zuppe

1. Twins: 34-26
2. Indians: 33-27
3. White Sox: 31-29
4. Royals: 25-35
5. Tigers: 23-37

For the most part, everything expressed before the shutdown, cancellation and restart of the season applies today — the Twins pulled ahead of the Indians when they signed ex-Tribe infielder Josh Donaldson, the White Sox are intriguing, the Royals and Tigers are not (yet?).

So, sticking with something similar to what FanGraphs projects feels … safe? And with fewer games to expand a lead, it feels reasonable that 1-3 games separate the best in the Central.

Then again, what is safe? If projecting a 162-game season has its pitfalls, performing a similar exercise with a 60-game schedule is like playing “Floor is Lava” with actual lava.

For example, let’s say a team has a true-talent winning percentage of .550. That club doesn’t always play at a .550 clip during every snapshot of the season. They win 65 percent of their games for a three-week period, then lose 60 percent of them over the next two.

They win three. They lose two. They win two. They lose one.

Teams ebb and flow. Those drastic cold and hot streaks can blend together like the scenery of a Bob Ross masterpiece … or resemble a two-year old’s frantic finger-painting, depending on the team’s overall record at the end of the six-month grind. And this isn’t six months.

Just because the Twins, on paper, appear to be the AL Central’s most talented team doesn’t mean they are immune to playing like a .500 club or worse over this particular 60-game set. And while it’s extremely unlikely, what if the Royals or Tigers catch fire for a few weeks, thanks to the pleasant sequencing of the small sample size? Oh, and this isn’t your typical schedule, either.

We could be in for madness.

Alex Hooper

1. Minnesota Twins – 39-21

2. Chicago White Sox – 31-29

3. Cleveland Indians - 30-30

4. Kansas City Royals – 18-42

5. Detroit Tigers – 12-48

After 60 games in 2019, Cleveland was 30-30, already as many as 11.5 games back in the division. Terry Francona teams have not exactly roared out to hot starts through 60 contests in his tenure. Here is how his first 60 games have gone each season so far:

2013 – 30-30

2014 – 30-30

2015 – 28-32

2016 – 34-26

2017 – 31-29

2018 – 32-28

2019 – 30-30

Things are different this year. For one, there will be no borderline-freezing temperatures to play through for the first 50-plus games like normal. Francona’s emphasis on intensity will likely change with only a 60-game sprint instead of the 162-game marathon. So, to flat out look at his previous records through 60 games leaves a lot of room for variation.

That being said, Francona’s best and worst teams only swung a total of four games through 60 tries, and the current rendition of the Indians roster does not hold up with those 2016-2018 teams. 30-30 feels right.

The Twins have one of the best lineups in baseball, reinforced in the off-season. Their addition of Kenta Maeda adds to their relatively lacking rotation, which looks like an improvement on last season’s.

Rocco Baldelli’s squad should not be quite as hot as they were to start last season, but the AL/NL central schedule could allow for the best two or three teams to run away.

The White Sox have been loading up for a while now, and they’re probably a year away from where they want to be, but this seems like a situation where a young team could start to see what they are made of.

Expect them to try and shoot one across Cleveland’s proverbial bow and prove this will be a three-team race in the coming years.

The Royals and Tigers should spend 2020’s sprint by making sure all players with bad contracts (looking at you, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann) soak up as much service time as possible, and otherwise give time to their up-and-comers. Expect both teams to experiment with some of their fringe options, and lose plenty of games by doing so.

Casey Drotter

1. Twins (40-20)

2. Indians (34-26)

3. White Sox (32-28)

4. Royals (27-33)

5. Tigers (19-41)

No matter how many games they play this season, the AL Central still runs through Minnesota. While the Twins don’t boast the best rotation in the division, there’s more than enough offense to make up for any on-mound issues. And that was the case before they added Josh Donaldson over the winter.

The Indians will be close behind, provided no injuries occur with their starting pitching. Offensively, Cleveland should be able to generate a good amount of run support for the rotation, especially if José Ramírez can put last year’s early slump behind him and Franmil Reyes is able to provide consistent power.

I’m not sold on Chicago just yet. Rookie Luis Robert is about to make his presence known, make no mistake about that. Regardless, I believe the White Sox are still a year out from becoming a legit threat to take the Central.

The Royals’ ceiling appears to be a fourth place finish, as they aren’t built to make too much noise right now. As for Detroit, well...hopefully they just have fun playing baseball this summer?

Mark Warmuth

The Minnesota Twins should be the favorite in the AL Central for 2020 based on their 101 victories a year ago. They were second in the league in runs scored and added former MVP (and former Indian) Josh Donaldson to play third.

On the other hand, a number of Twins had career years, and can they be matched in ’20, most notably C Mitch Garver, who socked 31 homers. And you can’t forget DH Nelson Cruz will be 39 this season. Can he continue to be among the game’s best power hitters.

They were 5 in ERA, and added Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill to replace Kyle Gibson in the rotation. However, Maeda’s ERA is 1.20 runs worse away from Chavez Ravine.

The Twins have a lot of guys with one year track records, if they can come close to duplicating their ’19 numbers, they will be a force.

Cleveland is kind of the opposite, 3 in ERA, but 7 in runs scored.

They are built around young superstars Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez and a deep, but kind of unproven over the long haul starting rotation. Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger are two of the game’s best, and if Carlos Carrasco is healthy, he could give Terry Francona three aces to Minnesota’s Jose Barrios.

The offense could be a boost from slugger Franmil Reyes being around all year.

The White Sox have a lot of young, up and coming talent, but only won 72 games a year ago, and have a lot to make up, although a shortened season helps them.

Rookie Luis Robert will be a Rookie of the Year candidate, and they need Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez to back up Lucas Giolito in the rotation.

The Royals and Tigers are in rebuilding mode, with Kansas City a bit ahead of the Motor City crew. KC could be in the mix if young players like Jorge Soler, Adelberto Mondesi continue to develop. Will this be the year Whit Merrifield gets traded though?

Zach Shafron

1. Minnesota 40-20

2. Cleveland 35-25

3. Chicago 30-30

4. Kansas City 25-35

5. Detroit 22-38

It’s quite clear that Minnesota adding Josh Donaldson to the club is a huge addition. That man can crush the baseball.

This is what will put them ahead of the Indians in 2020’s shortened-season unless Francisco Lindor overachieves. Unfortunately, the Tribe didn’t make any type of addition to make them a clear-cut contender with the Twins, but more a solid second-place finisher.

Chicago, Kansas City and Detroit have a lot of work to do in order to get back in competition with the aforementioned counterparts. These three teams will contend, but it will be for who stays out of last place in the AL Central.

A season of only 60 games certainly changes the dynamics. Each game is of much more value and it will be interesting to see how the various teams handle it.

Matt Loede

Minnesota 39-21

Cleveland 36-24

Chicago 31-29

Kansas City 27-33

Detroit 22-38

Until the Twins are dethroned to me they are the best in the division, and this offseason did nothing to hurt them with the pickup of Josh Donaldson to an already stacked lineup.

The Indians should win between 34-37 games IF they can stay healthy and their infield, led by Francisco Lindor, carries them. If any one of the five infielders (including Roberto Perez) has a bad season or even a slow start, it’s going to really hurt the offense.

Chicago made a number of upgrades this offseason, but their pitching is still very suspect past Lucas Giolito, who was an All-Star last season. Their offense though is scary, and could put up runs in bunches against teams with not so hot pitching.

The Royals and Tigers can almost be lumped together, as they are two teams with a long way to go before they can compete in the division. Kansas City is a little further along both on the pitching and hitting side than the Tigers, who many think might just be the worst team in all of baseball.