Should Hunter Wood Still Be Considered a Lock to Make the Indians' Opening Day Bullpen?

Reliever Hunter Wood has had struggles this spring for the Indians, and while he's out of options, is he still a player who is a lock to make the team's opening day roster out of the pen or will the team go in another direction?

We’re reaching the point in spring training where opening day roster projections, for the most part, become pretty consistent. With just a couple weeks to go before the season begins, we have a good idea of who’ll open the year in the bigs and who’ll need additional seasoning in the minors.

When it comes to the Cleveland Indians’ bullpen, projections have been relatively unchanged throughout the spring. Obviously, Emmanuel Clase’s back injury shifted things a bit. Outside of that, most projections view Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Nick Wittgren, Oliver Perez, James Karinchak, James Hoyt and Hunter Wood as safe bets when it comes to who makes up Cleveland’s relief corps.

Wood’s name remains a fixture despite what’s been a rocky spring. He has no minor league options remaining, context which helps clarify why his spot appears to be safe.

Should it be, though?

Considering both his struggles in Arizona and some questionable trends from last season, it’s not crazy to poke holes in the idea of Wood being a lock to join Cleveland’s bullpen in a couple weeks.

For some initial caveats, it’s worth noting Wood’s role with the Indians likely isn’t as one of their primary relievers. He’ll serve as a depth pitcher they can lean on to help bridge the gap between starters and the setup man when needed.

Additionally, some of his numbers from 2019 are encouraging. He finished the year with a 2.98 ERA in 45.1 innings pitched, with Baseball Savant being particularly bullish about his fastball spin rate, ranking it in the 92 percentile.

Dig a little beyond that, though, and you’ll come across some red flags.

As mentioned, Wood has been having a rough go of it so far this spring. He entered Monday boasting an ERA of 23.63, allowing five hits, two walks and seven earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched. Two of his hits allowed left the ballpark, resulting in a HR/9 of 6.8.

Worth noting is the fact Baseball Reference grades his quality of opponent at just under Double-A, so Wood isn’t exactly getting tuned up by major leaguers.

Of course, this is spring training we’re talking about. Wood’s showing hasn’t been great, but it’d be more concerning if what we’re seeing now was further confirmation of some warning signs which popped up last season.

Unfortunately, that might be what’s taking place.

As mentioned, Wood finished the 2019 campaign with an ERA of 2.98, safely below league average (4.51). However, it’s a slightly different story when looking at his Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA), which estimates what someone's ERA should’ve been by comparing him to pitchers with similar strikeout rates, walk rates and ground ball percentage.

Wood logged a 2019 SIERA of 4.49, indicating his final ERA was more than a little misleading.

Likewise, Wood wrapped up last season with an FIP of 4.36, which wasn’t great, but was still a pinch lower than league average (4.51). That said, the narrative notably changes when looking at his xFIP.

For reference, xFIP uses the same calculations as FIP, but replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average HR/FB percentage (9-10%). FanGraphs views an xFIP of 3.80 as average.

Wood’s 2019 xFIP was 5.12.

Using this framework, you’re forced to ask if what we’re seeing in Arizona is more than just a case of Wood chipping off some rust. Instead, it could be further indication that a few of his performance estimators from last season were on to something.

Wood’s experience and lack of remaining options still give him favorable odds to land a spot in Cleveland’s bullpen. However, if he spends the rest of the spring getting frequently teed off on, it’ll be tough for the team to sell the idea he earned it.

Yes, to instead hand his spot to a reliever without MLB experience – such as Cam Hill – is risky. That said, would going with Wood be any less of a high-wire act?

Again, Cleveland likely isn’t planning to hand Wood numerous crucial innings per week. Likewise, no big-league bullpen is elite from top to bottom.

Still, managers at the very least need to trust who they're putting on the mound. This is especially so when considering the new three-batter minimum rule being put into motion this season.

For the moment, the reliability factor isn't there for Wood. As a result, it’s fair to wonder if him making Cleveland’s opening day roster should be viewed as a near-certainty.