What is a Realistic Contract Number for Francisco Lindor? Here's What One Projection System Suggests

Most everyone, at this point, has taken a stab at predicting what sort of offer Lindor would accept, but Dan Szymborski, developer of the ZiPS projection model, may have provided the best attempt at a numbers-based offer over at FanGraphs.

To the surprise of ... *checks notes* ... absolutely no one, Francisco Lindor and discussion of his future with the Indians is going to remain a hot button until there's finally some sort of resolution, and any piece of news that can be even remotely connected to the star shortstop is going to keep that topic warm.

The latest dot-connection was between Lindor, who is controlled by Cleveland via arbitration through 2021, and Christian Yelich, who reportedly was nearing an extension this week with the Brewers, a deal which would keep the star outfielder with Milwaukee through at least 2028 at the cost of a reported $215 million over the nine-year period. 

The two situations certainly have their major differences -- Yelich, for one, was set to be older than Lindor when he reached free-agency -- but the fact that a smaller market like Milwaukee is keeping their star while the Indians have been forced to entertain trade offers and haven't offered much hope of reaching an agreement thus far has been enough, once again, to get the inevitable Lindor discussion churning.

Most everyone, at this point, has taken a stab at predicting what sort of offer Lindor would accept -- the switch-hitting All-Star infielder even playfully attempted to make reporters throw out their own figures at TribeFest earlier this month (it didn't go well) -- but Dan Szymborski, developer of the ZiPS projection model, may have provided the best attempt at a numbers-based offer to date over at FanGraphs.

The ZiPs projections of Lindor through 2030 have the shortstop worth 49.5 wins above replacement over the next 11 seasons. That works out to just over 36 WAR over the nine seasons following 2021 (the full breakdown can be found here and it's worth the read).

Dan writes: "(Lindor) won’t hit free agency as young as (Bryce) Harper or Manny Machado, but with two years remaining until he’s eligible, he will hit it in time for his age-28 season. Assuming $7.5 million per ZiPS win (this figure still tracks as the best predictor of salaries with this winter’s contracts included) and a discounted rate for his final year of arbitration, ZiPS projects a 10-year extension starting in 2021 as costing $373 million at 5% salary growth and $340 million at 3% salary growth. This projection does not strike me as wholly unreasonable given what we saw this winter."

That's a bit different than Yelich's reported extension. You could argue that the Indians might jump at the chance to sign Lindor to something similar to Yelich.

In fact, there’s probably not a lot of need to link the two stars. If the general point is the Indians can afford Lindor and should go out of their way to make it work, then that’s a fine enough sentiment to stand on its own. 

Szymborski goes on to make a case for why the Indians should be willing to give the sort of offer ZiPs suggests (and he's not even the first at FanGraphs to make a similar argument), but regardless of whether or not you agree, those figures provide, perhaps, the most realistic glimpse of what the "right thing" might be for Lindor, who has indicated that he's not particularly interested in handing out any contract discounts.

Of course, there's a chance that Lindor wouldn't even entertain a lucrative deal from the Indians without an ability to first test free agency -- that's absolutely his right -- and that's even considering an expressed love for playing in Cleveland that feels believable.

But even if Indians ownership indicates that an offer to that level is unrealistic -- they'd really be arguing that it would be too difficult to maintain a championship squad around Lindor at that price -- the fact that the ticking clock coincides with a payroll going in an undesirable direction doesn't do much to demonstrate that enough is being done now to surround their MVP-level talent, even as they enter 2020 with a contending team.

After all, this was probably always a PR battle the Indians were destined to lose. But it would be a lot easier to defend their point of view if they were taking full advantage of the time where they still control one of the game's top talents, and Cleveland, at the moment, is a good team with a declining payroll and flaws that are easy to spot.

Contract figures like the one ZiPS suggests may be way out of the Indians' comfort zone, but that should have little to do with their actions leading up to a resolution.