Who Leads the Miami Marlins in Home Runs in 2024?
The Miami Marlins could conceivably have a power problem this year.
A year removed from hitting only 166 home runs, thirty below the MLB average, and then losing outfielder Jorge Soler and his thirty-six longballs to free agency, there's a valid question about who is going to pick up the load from a power standpoint on the 2024 roster.
Enter...Jake Burger?
The trade deadline acquisition hit a combined 34 homers between his time with the Chicago White Sox and Miami, and a full year of his improved Miami production might end up with him filling in for Soler from a power perspective.
Burger batted .214 for the White Sox in 88 games last season, but significantly outperformed that during his 53 games in Miami, batting .303 down the stretch for Miami.
That better batting average was fueled by a significantly reduced strikeout rate, going from 31.6% with Chicago to a career-low 21.7% with the Marlins.
FanGraphs' Steamer projections estimate Burger to finish with 26 homers, batting .250/.309/.458. with a 26.9% strikeout rate.
It honestly feels like 30 homers are likely, given the inherently conservative nature of those projection systems.
Jazz Chisholm, Jr. gets another conservative projection, as well, with a 27-homer total on a .246/.310/.453 line. His previous high was 19, reached last year in only 97 games.
A third source of power to watch for is Josh Bell, who finished last season with 22 combined between Cleveland and Miami. But Bell's homer rate in Miami, hitting 11 in only 53 games, was significantly ahead of what he did with the Guardians, where he hit 11 in 93 games., going from a 2.8% homer rate to a 4.9% homer rate.
His FanGraphs projection is for 23 homers on a .259/.342/.442 line, which would actually be an under-performance from the .270 average he showed down the stretch with the Marlins.
If that trio can combine for eighty homers, that goes a long way to getting Miami into above-average power production relative to the rest of baseball.
And don't sleep on leftfielder Bryan De La Cruz. Just one season after tying for second with Chisholm after launching 19 homers, he's projected to essentially repeat that performance by FanGraphs. Steamer throws out a .262/.314/.428 line for BDLC, in 133 games and 560 plate appearances.
