Why This Marlins Free Agent Signing Could Have a Massive 2024 Season
The Miami Marlins hadn't made a major league free agent signing all winter.
And when they finally did, coming to terms with a free-agent shortstop on February 24th, the baseball world was underwhelmed at their choice.
But here's why it'd be foolish to sleep on Tim Anderson and his 2024 season.
Anderson was both hurt and exceptionally unlucky last season
Anderson, who has been plagued by nagging injuries the last few seasons, played with a left knee sprain that gave him trouble for the majority of last season.
And the impacts were obvious when you look under the hood.
Anderson's speed, which has always been well above-average, dropped all the way to only the 46th percentile, per MLB Statcast. This in turn also decimated his defensive range, which was in the 31st percentile.
From a power perspective, not having that stable base to his swing dropped Anderson's barrel rate down to one of MLB's worst, at only 2.9% (5th percentile), down from 10.1% just a few seasons ago.
But the lack of impact behind his hits and his reduced speed not only drug down his conventional statistics, it also caused some poor batted ball luck. Anderson's BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) dropped almost 30 points from his previous marks, coming in at .323 (as compared to a career average of .348).
Anderson told MLB.com soon after signing that the injury concerns were finally behind him: "[The injury] took a toll," Anderson said. "You're talking about the front side of an MCL sprain. I had nothing to hit up against. It led to a lot of ground balls. No excuses. I kept working. I feel good today. I feel healthy, and I'm ready to go, and I'm excited."
He's historically been an above-average player with flashes of greatness
Anderson was a consistent performer for the first part of his career, before injuries and the team around him deteriorated in Chicago.
Anderson led the league in batting average in 2019, batting .335 for a full season, and then followed that up with three more seasons of a batting average of .300 or better - the only player in MLB to bat over .300 all four seasons during that stretch. He averaged a .318 batting average mark over that span.
His strong 2020 season, in which Anderson batted .322 with 10 homers and an AL-leading 45 runs, led him to finish in the top seven in the AL Most Valuable Player race and get his first Silver Slugger award. He followed that up with two straight All-Star nods in 2021 and 2022.
And his defense slumped last season, owing to the reduced range we discussed earlier, but the team as a whole collapsed around him. The Chicago White Sox lost 101 games and sold off many components of their roster at the trade deadline, including third baseman Jake Burger to Miami.
The offense scored only 641 runs, exactly two hundred less than they allowed, and several White Sox significantly underperformed their expected stats owing to the team's futility - reliever Aaron Bummer put up a 3.58 FIP but had a 6.79 ERA, owing to the awful defense, while reliever Reynaldo López had a 4.29 ERA with Chicago before being traded and a 2.77 (Angels) and 0.00 (Guardians) after being moved.
Being in a better environment - one with a great hitter in Luis Arráez that can help restore Anderson's batting average - can do wonders for Anderson's return to offensive prominence.
So, what are reasonable expectations for Tim Anderson?
The various projection systems from FanGraphs have Anderson batting somewhere between .277 and .282, with 6-8 homers and 12-19 stolen bases.
But we're going to go a bit further.
A .285 average with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases would slot in nicely for Miami in the #2 or #3 spot in the order, behind leadoff man Luis Arráez (who really shouldn't be leading off, owing to his lacking speed) and ahead of power threats Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Expect Anderson to start lower in the lineup but, once he's closer to his historic levels of performance, to move into the top five with the aforementioned four and Jazz Chisholm to give Miami a well above-average top-of-the-lineup that can threaten opposing pitching staffs from the first pitch.
