Plotting Mets Slugger's Path To 500 Home Runs
There are exclusive clubs in the history of baseball. One of them is 500 career home runs.
Scan the list and you’ll find just 28 names, 28 legendary players that crossed that threshold in their career.
One that crossed that threshold with the New York Mets late in his career was Gary Sheffield, who is not a player that one would necessarily associate with the Mets. But he hit his 500th career home run with the Mets in 2009, the final year of his career.
MLB.com recently wrote a piece on 13 players that it believes could have a chance of reaching that mark. One of the players highlighted is a current Mets player. Whether he remains a Mets player past 2024 is unclear.
First baseman Pete Alonso is entering his sixth year in the Majors. He’s already done great things. He’s a three-time All-Star, a former Rookie of the Year and has won the All-Star Game Home Run Derby twice.
He knows how to hit home runs. The question is whether he has the runway to catch Sheffield one day?
Alonso has been powerful and productive in five seasons. In four full seasons he’s hit at least 37 home runs, including his career-high 53 his rookie season. In the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season, he hit 16 home runs.
That’s 192 total. Take that total and project it for a 162-game average and Alonso would hit 45 home runs per season. At that pace, Alonso would reach 507 home runs seven seasons from now in 2030.
But MLB.com isn’t certain he’ll get there. Working for Alonso is his durability. He’s missed 24 games to injury in five seasons and he plays a position where players tend to avoid injury. Working against him is the uncertainty of where he’ll be after 2024. He will be a free agent and who knows how friendly that park will be to his swing.
The site also points out that Alonso is entering his age 29 season and would have to maintain a brisk pace to make the cut. For example, it points out that an average of 37 home runs per season would put him short of 500 after eight seasons.
MLB.com doubts he can maintain the pace. But, first, Alonso has to find a long-term home after playing out this season with the Mets, where he’s going to play on a $20.5 million contract agreed to avoid arbitration.
