New York Mets Odds of Reaching Postseason Dwindle in Latest Rankings

The New York Mets have a 28 percent chance of making the postseason, but they still could be buyers at the MLB trade deadline, according to ESPN.

Or, the Mets could simply be sellers come the All-Star Break — or as much as team with its payroll can be.

ESPN ranked the Mets as a team that is ‘idling’ in terms of its aggressiveness to make a trade.

The site ranked every team based on what their level of aggressiveness, should be using a variety of factors and 10,000 simulations to determine probable win totals and potential for a playoff berth.

The simulations didn’t look great for the Mets. After ESPN projected the Mets for 83 wins earlier this season, it now projects them with 79.7 wins, not nearly enough to reach the postseason.

But, there is still more than three months left in the season, and given the financial commitment the Mets have made this season, ESPN believes that the Mets floundering is really the only way they sell:

The Mets almost certainly would not start offloading talent. But if New York is, say, eight games under .500 in late July, could we reasonably expect an aggressive deadline strategy? Not if it entails dealing some of the Mets' top prospects, some of whom (Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez) have helped New York do as well as it has.

The Mets didn’t get any favors when they returned from Atlanta, where first baseman Pete Alonso was hit by a pitch and suffered a wrist injury, which landed him on the injured list.

The Mets were 9.5 games back of front-running Atlanta in the NL East entering Saturday’s action. New York is still just four games under .500 with more than six weeks to go before the trade deadline. The Mets aren’t the only disappointing team based on financial commitment, as the San Diego Padres are three games under .500.

The rankings took into account factors like odds to reach the postseason, remaining schedule and strength of division. They also considered statistical data like run differential, roster strength, remaining schedule and used that data in 10,000 simulations to project win totals and postseason odds.

So the Mets might not sell much if they flounder. But it might temper their aggressiveness come late July.