Advanced Stats Paint Bleak Picture for Nationals Pitcher Josiah Gray

Josiah Gray has returned for the Washington Nationals.

That is a good sign for both him and the franchise, as it's been a long road back for the right-hander after he underwent Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2024. On the surface, Gray has looked good in his two spring training starts thus far, which should inspire some confidence that he can be an effective arm for the Nationals in some capacity.

However, advanced statistics paint a bleaker picture when it comes to the 28-year-old. And that is a bit concerning when thinking about the broader picture of what type of role Gray can have with the Nationals this season and beyond.

Josiah Gray's Stuff+ Numbers Are Well Below Average

Josiah Gray of the Washington Nationals | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The first thing that jumps out regarding his profile are just how low his Stuff+ numbers are. Thomas Nestico dove into Gray's first outing back from Tommy John surgery when he had success against the Houston Astros on March 2. And despite the righty giving up an earned run on two hits in 1 1/3 innings with three strikeouts and no walks, the advanced statistics weren't kind to his arsenal.

In fact, all of his pitches were below the average Stuff+ rating of 100. His sweeper and curveball earned the highest grades at 98 and 97, respectively, while his slider earned a 93 and his fastball was given a brutal grade of 91.

Josiah Gray made his debut!

After a couple of injured riddled seasons, Gray is lined up to start 2026 in the Nationals rotation. It was an encouraging outing. While the fastball grade is low, its combination of ride and flat VAA makes it a pitch to follow this Spring pic.twitter.com/dL17lfXTQl
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 2, 2026

In his first start back from such a long layoff, it's hard to be overly critical of that. But it's something that has to be pointed out since Stuff+ grades that low for fastballs usually don't suggest a pitcher is going to have success in the MLB.

And even after Gray's second start where he didn't allow a run and only gave up one hit across three innings while striking out two and walking one, he didn't show much to boost his Stuff+ grade. Through two starts this spring, he sits with a figure of 93, which is a scary place to be if he's going to be an effective starting pitcher.

Can Josiah Gray Have Success Without Possessing Dominant Stuff?

What some fans might be wondering after reading that is if Gray can be effective against big league hitters if he doesn't have an elite arsenal at his disposal. The answer to that is yes, but there is a caveat: he has to locate his pitches extremely well.

Starters who don't have the best stuff can still be important rotation pieces for teams if they are able to locate. And the good news for Gray is -- outside of the 2024 season where he dealt with his arm issues that eventually led to surgery -- he's had better Location+ grades than Stuff+ ones.

The concern for him and Washington is location is the usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from the Tommy John procedure. So banking on Gray to be super accurate in his return early on is a scary proposition when he doesn't have elite stuff.

The Battle Between On-Field Results and Advanced Statistics

Gray has a 1.93 ERA across his two spring starts after allowing just one run in 4 2/3 innings of work. He's given up four hits, struck out five, walked one and hit two. Outside of the hit-by-pitch blunders, those look like solid numbers, especially for a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. So it's easy to see why some fans might prefer what they see with their eyes over what a data sheet says.

Therein lies the battle between on-field results and analytics at times. There's no doubt that Gray has been successful in his two starts this spring, but there are also some major issues lurking under the surface that could rear its ugly head at some point, as well.

That's why it's wise to pair both of these realities together. And it's why Nationals fans should be excited about the new regime in place that is more open to advanced statistics. Because if this data is this glaring to me, then it's almost certainly something this staff is keeping their eye on as they continue to get Gray ramped up for the 2026 season.