Was Andrew Alvarez's Breakout With Nationals Real or Just a Mirage?

What should be made out of how Andrew Alvarez performed with the Washington Nationals?

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There wasn't a lot to root for down the stretch of this past season for Washington Nationals fans, but Daylen Lile's pursuit of the team's franchise triples record made things interesting when the team overall was limping to the finish line.

Based on what he did in the second half, there is a lot of excitement for what he can do right out of the gate next year with a full offseason of training ahead of him. At the very least, he's going to be a rotation outfielder for the Nationals with a real chance to be seen as a cornerstone to build around.

However, Lile wasn't the only bright spot for Washington coming down the stretch, as Andrew Alvarez provided a major boost to a starting rotation that was hit hard with injury and had performed poorly throughout the campaign.

Andrew Alvarez Was Breakout Star for Nationals

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The left-hander arrived on Sept. 1 as the replacement for MacKenzie Gore when he was placed on the 15-day injured list. Considering the state of the pitching staff and how the season had gone, no one was expecting much out of Alvarez.

But he dazzled during his MLB debut, throwing five scoreless inning where he gave up just one hit and struck out four with two walks allowed. He followed that up with just two earned runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings pitched against the Chicago Cubs on the road before returning home and spinning another scoreless outing versus the Pittsburgh Pirates where he allowed only three hits.

All in all, Alvarez finished with a 2.31 ERA and an ERA+ that was 80 points above the league average of 100 across five total starts and 23 1/3 innings pitched. He provided the Nationals' rotation with stability down the stretch, and it should be enough to earn him a shot at making the 2026 Opening Day roster.

Was Andrew Alvarez's Performance Real?

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It's perfectly normal to have enjoyed what Alvarez did in his limited action but also be skeptical about what he can provide at the big league level going forward. And that's exactly some of the things Mark Zuckerman of MASN highlighted when he took a look at the lefty.

"He doesn't have overpowering stuff, with a fastball that averages 91.2 mph and a modest strikeout rate of 7.7 per nine innings. He didn't get a lot of swings and misses overall (22.2 percent, below the major league average of 25 percent)," he wrote when it comes to Alvarez's shortcomings.

That makes it hard to believe a larger sample size is going to produce the same results that happened to close out the 2025 campaign, especially because he's someone who didn't have an ERA below the 4.00 mark across 41 Triple-A starts.

Alvarez was also not a top prospect in Washington's pipeline coming up the ranks as a 12th-round pick of the 2021 draft, with him never once cracking their top 30 list. That lack of pedigree is a red flag. However, there were some majors positives the left-hander flashed that could be signs of him being a late bloomer.

"What Alvarez did get was a lot of weak contact, especially on the ground. His 58.2 percent groundball rate was way above the league average of 44.2 percent (again, in a very limited sample). Opponents 'barreled' only three percent of the balls they put in play against him (major league average: 7.2 percent). They hit just .200 off his fastball and a miniscule .091 with zero extra-base hits off his slider," Zuckerman wrote.

Conclusion

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It's hard for me not to view Alvarez as a flash in the pan who had a nice close to September when virtually nobody had any experience facing him and the information about his pitches was limited. Perhaps I'm jaded from the previous drop offs Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin had this year following their own breakouts in 2024. But the statistics pointed out above were glaring.

That's not to say Alvarez shouldn't get a shot to make the rotation in spring training. If he performs well and he is able to carry over what he did this past season into next year, then I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong.

However, past indicators suggest he's going to struggle in the near future, and despite the breakout he had in five major league starts, I don't believe he's a viable long-term rotation arm.