Who To Watch for Nationals' Top Pick in 2025 MLB Draft

Who might the Washington Nationals take with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft?

Jun 14, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida State Seminoles starting pitcher Jamie Arnold (16) throw against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first inning at Charles Schwab Filed Omaha. | Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

It's no secret that the Washington Nationals built their World Series teams on the backs of top overall selections Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

While Harper was one year separated from the team, the idea is that since the Nationals are not the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, it is vital for general manager Mike Rizzo and his team to have successful drafts every year.

While it is easy to complain about the Dodgers’ spending, their success rate in drafting and developing talent is second to none. The key for any franchise is developing inexpensive talent and pairing it with potential free-agent signings or using those players as trade bait to fill holes during a playoff push.

Each organization has its own drafting strategies. Some clubs prefer high-ceiling prep players, while others opt for college players with higher floors.

With that in mind, using rankings and mock drafts from various sources, along with observations from past draft strategies, this article will identify possible positional holes in the current top 30 prospects. It will lean on insights from various scouts to narrow down the player field.

Based on prior evaluations of the Nationals’ top 30 prospects, it is apparent that the team will be looking for a pitcher, but will Rizzo target a college pitcher who could quickly slot in behind ace MacKenzie Gore, or will he seek a high-ceiling pitcher to pair with the likes of Travis Sykora (RHP, A, No. 1), Jarlin Susana (RHP, AA, No. 2) and Alex Clemmey (LHP, A+, No. 5)?

Jamie Arnold – LHP – Florida State University – Average Rank: 2.00 

The six-foot-one left-hander is viewed as the closest “sure thing” and likely the readiest for the majors in this year’s draft. He led the Seminoles to the semifinals of the College World Series last year, posting a sub-3.00 earned run average and a remarkable 159/26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. So far this season, he is 2-0 with a 24/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 innings.

Arnold, who features a fastball that sits at 94-95 mph and can peak at 97 mph, has plus command that gives him a projected role as a number two starter. He also boasts a plus slider/sweeper that could improve with slight vertical movement, plus a promising changeup that he doesn't rely on yet.

He has the moxie of a guy who enjoys pitching the big games and starting on Friday nights.

Ethan Holliday – SS – Stillwater High School (OK) – Average Rank: 2.00 

Holliday is a six-foot-four shortstop and the younger brother of Jackson Holliday and son of former MLB player Matt Holliday. He possesses a similar build to his power-hitting father and brings significant power potential from the left side of the plate, projecting to a 70-grade power.

Defensively, Holliday is agile enough to remain at shortstop for now, though scouts suggest he may ultimately transition to third base, where his plus arm will be an asset. While some scouts are cautious about his eventual move from shortstop, it is difficult to overlook his potential for 35 home runs combined with good plate discipline. His pedigree offers a higher floor than many other prospects.

Seth Hernandez – RHP – Corona High School (CA) – Average Rank: 5.25 

Hernandez is a six-foot-four right-hander who stands out as a wildcard in the draft. He comfortably sits at 95-97 mph with the potential to reach triple digits. What sets him apart is his command for his age as well as two additional plus pitches.

Most young pitchers struggle to develop a changeup, but that is Hernandez’s second pitch, which works beautifully off the same plane as his fastball. He also features a 12-6 curveball with a 3000-rpm spin rate. Although he has recently added a slider to his repertoire, it is not yet necessary given his current skill set.

Hernandez is committed to Vanderbilt, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him selected in the top three of the draft.

This situation becomes interesting for the Nationals, as there isn’t a Strasburg or Harper in this draft class. Does Rizzo prioritize a player who could contribute to the big-league club in the next couple of years, or take a chance on the potential of Hernandez?

With two months to go, all eyes will be on Arnold at Florida State as they make another run toward the College World Series. If the pick were made today and this writer were the GM, it would be difficult to pass on the potential of Hernandez.

That being said, my job isn’t on the line and the promise of Arnold, and his unique arm slot make the most sense in mid-April.