Baltimore Orioles Projected Ace Expected to Have Down Season?

For the Baltimore Orioles to reach the level of success that they're aiming for in 2024, they need their young starters to take the next step. FanGraphs doesn't think that will happen for their projected ace.

If the Baltimore Orioles don't go out and land a top-level starter that they've been rumored to be searching for this offseason, it's likely because of two factors.

The first is the obvious one that the Orioles aren't willing to spend that type of money on a single player.

The second would be they're comfortable heading into 2024 with their batch of young starters and think they can carry the load for them throughout the year.

As it stands right now, Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish would be their No. 1 and No. 2 starters.

After a good rookie season in 2023, Rodriguez is viewed as the future ace of this staff and is expected to take next steps during the upcoming year.

However, FanGraphs isn't so sure that will happen in 2024 based on their ZiPS projections.

They have the right-hander sitting at a 2.4 figure, which is third in the rotation behind Bradish's 3.3 and Dean Kremer's 2.9. How they calculate those figures for the upcoming season can be read about here, but it is basically a way to project how well a player will perform during the year.

So, what is there to take away from this?

Well, it would suggest that if Baltimore wants to truly contend, they should be aggressive in finding their ace. While Rodriguez could become their future top-of-the-rotation guy, expecting that to happen in his second season might be a bad bet.

FanGraphs also has Bradish taking a step forward during 2024, but has Kremer regressing a bit compared to last year.

That hurts the overall outlook of their rotation and is one of the reasons why they think the Orioles should pursue this star pitcher on the open market.

Of course, Rodriguez could outperform these ZiPS projections and put forth a great year, however, relying on that to happen might not be the best course of action for a franchise who has emerged as true contenders.