How the Rockies Defense Impacted the Series Against the Phillies

Fans and pundits alike expected defense to be a major factor for the Philadelphia Phillies this year, but no one anticipated that it would be the opposing defense making the difference.

It certainly feels like the Colorado Rockies committed more than seven errors in their four-game sweeping by the Phillies this week. It also seems impossible that Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon, made only four of those errors.

Nevertheless, Colorado's defense was a huge presence at Citizens Bank Park. It doubtlessly had a huge impact on the Phillies total offensive output.

Beyond their errors, sloppy play and poor range made Phillies rallies continue far longer than anticipated. But just how much value did the Rockies defense add to the Phillies run total.

We'll use WPA, or Win Probability Added to determine that. WPA is an extraordinarily simple stat. Every play, in every baseball game, either increases or decreases a team's chance at winning by a percentage. WPA takes that percentage and simplifies it to a decimal point.

Going back to Game 1 of the series, none other than McMahon made the first error, flubbing a groundball and allowing J.T. Realmuto on to load the bases. The Phillies WPA on the play was .032.

Phillies total WPA: .032

In the third inning of that game, Bryce Harper grounded into what looked a double play, but Rockies shortstop, Jose Iglesias, missed the catch, allowing runners on first and second with one out.

Phillies total WPA: .076

By the seventh inning, the Phillies had taken a commanding 6-2 lead. With Alec Bohm at the plate and the bases loaded, he hit a weak grounder at McMahon, who let the ball roll past his glove on an error that scored two runs.

Since the score wasn't close in a late game, the Phillies WPA increased only .012.

Phillies total WPA: .088

Game two of the series was, on the whole, more defensively sound for the Rockies, but they played a catastrophic second inning. With a runner on first, Bohm crushed a ground ball right at McMahon, who fielded the play cleanly. Looking for the double play his throw to second sailed into right field, allowing Bohm to advance to second, and the runner on first, Kyle Schwarber, to advance to third with one out in a tie game.

Phillies total WPA: .178

The Rockies continued to do what every Little League coach fears most, compound errors. Later that inning, a wild pitch allowed Bohm to score from third, catcher Dom Núñez corralled the ball and made a wild throw to the pitcher, allowing Didi Gregorius to score all the way from second. The Phillies took a 3-0 lead on a huge .143 WPA play.

Phillies total WPA: .321

Somewhat shockingly, the Rockies managed to stay off the error line in series game three, but McMahon returned Thursday to make up for lost ground. He seemed determined to exert his presence in the field early when he threw away a Realmuto grounder in the second inning, allowing the Phillies catcher to reach second on a routine grounder, and the runner on first, Nick Castellanos, to reach third.

Phillies total WPA: .430

As resolute as they could be, the Rockies managed to make one more misplay before leaving Philadelphia. Down two in the seventh inning on Thursday, with runners on first and second for the Phillies. Gregorius grounded a potential double play ball at first baseman Connor Joe. The ball clunked off his glove for the Rockies' seventh error of the series and loaded the bases in what would be a four-run inning for the Phillies.

Phillies total WPA: .459

Looking solely at the errors the Rockies committed, the Phillies gained nearly half a win on just seven plays over the course of this week. That WPA total of .459 does not include any of the fall out from those plays, just the errors themselves.

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