The Breakout the Phillies Didn't Know They Needed

Jean Segura is paid like an All-Star, so why doesn't he play like one? Signed to a five-year, $70 million contract in June 2017, Segura has played just 4.0 wins above the average Major League player since then.

Coming off a breakout season in 2016, Segura was an offseason trade from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Seattle Mariners. That year, he had primarily played second base for the first time in his career, slashing .319/.368/.499 in the process with nine defensive runs saved (DRS).

In his two years with Seattle, Segura moved back to shortstop. There, his defense declined, but his relative offensive success won him an All-Star nomination in 2018.

Following a clubhouse row with Dee Gordon that September, Segura was traded to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. Immediately, his offensive output declined, dropping from an OPS+ of 112 to 91, while his defense dipped below league average.

In 2020, Segura moved back to second base, where his defense and offense have steadily improved. Last year, he slashed .290/.348/.436 with five DRS, impressive for a second baseman, but perhaps not worthy of the salary he earns.

Thus far in 2022, it seems like Segura's offensive production has slipped back to lower levels, slashing just .259/.322/.407. But looking beneath the hood at Segura's underlying stats, it's easy to see the storm clouds of breakout waiting to come down.

Based only on the situations he can control—the three true outcomes—Segura has cut down his strikeout rate by 3.6%, he's maintained his walk rate almost to the decimal, and increased his home run rate by 0.9%.

When Segura puts the ball in play, he's hitting it four miles per hour faster on average than he ever has in his career. A 93 mph exit velocity from Segura is good for 93rd percentile in MLB.

Unfortunately, those batted balls simply aren't finding holes. Though Segura has hit the ball harder, his BABIP has contradictorily decreased, from .317 to .261. As Wee Willie Keeler famously said, "Hit 'em where they ain't."

If Segura continues to crush opposing pitching the way he has, his BABIP will undoubtedly improve as the season continues. Baseball Savant has his xBA at .333 and his xSLG at .507. Those are numbers even Chase Utley would be proud of.

Not to forget Segura's defense, he's already worth two outs above average (OAA) and one DRS. However, it's early in the season and defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable on small sample sizes. But those data track with Segura's career totals, Gold Glove-level defense is something the Phillies should expect from him.

If Segura continues to play the way he has, he'll surely find himself on more than a few All-Star ballots and perhaps even a few down-ballot MVP votes.

The 2023 offseason may mean free agency for Segura—he has a $17 million club option—but that level of play would certainly entice the Phillies in executing that option.

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