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Should the Phillies Look Into Acquiring This Reds Slugger?
With two picks in the first round of the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft, the Philadelphia Phillies selected Shane Watson and Mitch Gueller, 40th and 54th respectively. Neither came close to the majors, but selected just nine rounds after Watson was Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Jesse Winker, a productive bat out of left field and a player the Phillies could sorely use.
When the Phillies signed Andrew McCutchen for three years, $59 million in Dec. 2018, they signaled to the NL East that their window was finally open after a seven-year rebuild. Three years later, in the winter of 2021-22, McCutchen is gone and the Phillies have yet to develop a left fielder.
At present, the Reds are signaling a fire sale. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported on Nov. 3 that Reds general manager Nick Krall said in a press conference, “we must align our payroll to our resources.”
That included trading away long-time Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Detroit Tigers and placing Wade Miley on waivers after a 2021 in which he posted a 3.37 over 28 starts, and even pitched a no-hitter. Now, trade talk swirls around pitchers like Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle as well.
Strangely though, there haven’t been as many conversations around Winker. Maybe it’s because he’s not as valuable, or because he has two years remaining on an arbitration contract, or it’s because he has major flaws in his game.
At surface level, Winker seems to be a compelling player. Since his debut in 2018, he’s slashed .288/.385/.504, a perfect fit for leadoff. These numbers, however, leave much to be told. In those five seasons, Winker has never amassed more than 500 plate appearances, he had his most—485—in 2021.
His defense also leaves much to be desired. Only once in 2020’s shortened season did Winker provide positive value on defense, but that was only in 16 games as he played DH in 37 of his 54 appearances. Over a 162 game average, Winker is worth -9 DRS.
Most important to understanding Winker's value are his splits. For his career, the lefty has slashed .313/.405/.556. Since 2020, only Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Freddy Freeman, Fernando Tatís Jr., and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have out produced Winker in WRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Those righty splits come with a drawback. Against lefties, Winker has slashed .188/.305/.295 for his career. Those stats aren't outweighed by early career numbers either. 36% of his career plate appearances came against lefties in 2021, and last year he hit just .177/.288/.284 against them.
Considering all of these issues, Winker’s price tag should be low compared to other hitters of his caliber so keep that in mind the Phillies would, in all likelihood, need a platoon-mate for Winker against left-handed starters to spell his horrid defense.
Luckily, the Phillies may have discovered that they already have the man for the job. Right-handed Matt Vierling plays solid defense in left field. His trip through the minor leagues saw him spend time at all outfield positions including center field. Left field is generally recognized the easiest outfield position so Vierling should have little trouble adapting to a defensive role there.
Lastly, the Phillies would need to package a trade to the Reds. Seeing as they recently traded their longtime starting catcher in Barnhart, Logan O’Hoppe, Phillies No. 6 prospect according to Fangraphs, might be of high value to the Reds and Krall.
While O’Hoppe wouldn’t be enough on his own, a triple-A level player like Nick Maton, Hans Crouse, or Luke Williams could seal the deal.
Should the Phillies acquire Winker this offseason, it would leave them with two less holes to fill before Opening Day, and provide a solid and defined role for the outfielder Vierling after his breakout 2021.
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