Playoff Odds for Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners

The Houston Astros are favored to win the American League West, while the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners have better than a 60% chance of making the playoffs.

The final stretch to decide the last three American League playoff spots is here.

The fates of the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will be decided as September becomes October, with the dreams alive for all three American League West rivals.

Perhaps they all reach the postseason. At most, only one will stay home. The odds, for now, are with all three.

So who will it be?

Luckily, it’ll be decided head-to-head-to head. The Rangers and Mariners meet seven times in the last 10 games, with a three-game series beginning Friday at Globe Life Park. Another four-game set ends the regular season in Seattle. The Mariners also have three home games with Houston after leaving Arlington.

Going into this frantic, closing run, the AL West-leading Astros (85-68) have the best chance of winning the division (51.0%) and making the playoffs (90.1%), according to FanGraphs. Houston went into Friday with a half-game lead in the West over both the Rangers (84-68) and Mariners (84-68).

The small edge, plus the remaining strength of schedule (SOS) of the three clubs, gives the Astros a significant advantage, at least in terms of probabilities. Houston hosts the lowly Kansas City Royals (51-102) for three games starting Friday.

The Rangers have the next best odds to make in the playoffs from the West at 67.8%, compared to 64.9% by Seattle. The Mariners, however, hold a better shot to win the division at 30.1% to Texas’ 18.9%.

The Astros, as mentioned earlier, have the easiest SOS at .489. Seattle, with all its games against the other two division contenders, has the hardest road at .543. The Rangers sit in the middle at .515.

So the odds are with Houston, Texas and Seattle reaching the postseason. But there’s one other postseason contender – the Toronto Blue Jays. Sitting at 85-68, the Blue Jays have a 77.1% of nabbing one of the two remaining Wild Cards.

(The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have playoff spots clinched. The AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins are also a postseason lock.)

Toronto does face a .545 SOS, with six games left against Tampa Bay. That’s significant, as the Rays (94-60) are still battling it out with Baltimore (95-58) for the AL East crown and No. 1 overall seed in the AL playoffs.

The odds are going to fluctuate daily. That’s the only certainty down the stretch.

You can follow Art Garcia on Twitter @ArtGarcia92.

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