Red Sox's Magic Number Keeps Dropping Despite Huge Missed Opportunity Vs. Rays

Would love to have that last one back...

Sep 21, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third base Junior Caminero (13) slides safely into home as he scores off a hit by outfielder Christopher Morel (24) as Boston Red Sox catcher Connor Wong (12) tries to make the tag during the eighth inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dave Nelson-Imagn Images | Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox's playoff odds received a boost on Sunday, but it's hard not to feel as though they missed a golden opportunity.

Earlier in the day, the Cleveland Guardians lost their 10-game winning streak, and the Detroit Tigers kept floundering with their sixth loss in a row. The Houston Astros lost again on Sunday night, ensuring a sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners. If Boston could have competed a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, its playoff destiny would be all but guaranteed.

Instead, after a 7-3 loss that easily felt as though it could have been a win, the Red Sox merely held serve in a deadlocked playoff race.

Updated playoff odds, magic number

Sep 20, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) and catcher Carlos Narvaez (75) react after beating the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Red Sox sit at 85-71 with six games to play. The schedule is tough, with a road series against the Toronto Blue Jays and a home series against the Tigers. But they have a one-game lead on both the Guardians and Astros (84-72), and they have the tiebreaker over both.

In the eyes of Fangraphs' playoff odds, that gives the Red Sox a sizable advantage over both the Guardians and Astros to clinch a wild-card spot. Boston's playoff odds are 89.9%, Houston's are 65.9%, and Cleveland's are 59.7%. Cleveland owns the tiebreaker over Houston, but the Astros have the easier schedule this week on paper.

Meanwhile, thanks to those two teams' losses on Sunday, the Red Sox's magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped to five. But it's essentially two magic numbers, one against Cleveland, one against Houston, and either reaching zero clinches the Red Sox's berth.

If the Red Sox go 3-3 the rest of the way, Houston and Cleveland would both need to go 5-1 to knock them out. Even 2-4 would figure to give them a fighting chance.

The Toronto series begins Tuesday, and the Red Sox will send their big three starting pitchers (Lucas Giolito, then Garrett Crochet, then Brayan Bello) to the mound on five days' rest apiece. Chaos is sure to ensue, but we don't yet know who it will benefit.

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