Projected Record Red Sox Will Need To Make Postseason Should Concern Fans
The Boston Red Sox have had a very up-and-down season so far. They are just over a third of the way through the 2023 campaign and the team stands exactly at .500 with a record of 30-30.
In case you've lived under a rock for the last two months, the American League East is absolutely stacked this year. The combination of up-and-coming talent and teams not having to play each other as much with the new and improved Major League Baseball schedule has this division with a significantly higher collective winning percentage than any other division in baseball.
That means a 30-30 record is good for last place for the Sox, and 2 1/2 games back of the next closest team, the Toronto Blue Jays.
This is around the time each season when I start to project what the Sox record will need to be in order for the team to qualify for the postseason. As we stand here today, the New York Yankees are the last Wild Card team with a record of 36-25. That would have their projected end-of-season record at 96-66. For those of you keeping track at home, that is a LOT of wins for the 6th and final playoff team.
For comparison, last season the final team in the dance in the American League was the Tampa Bay Rays with a record of 86-76. They got swept in a Wild Card series against the Guardians, but that isn't the point here.
We, or at least I, am trying to figure out exactly how good this Sox team has to perform in the final 102 games of this season to have a chance of making the playoffs.
While that Yankees' projection of 96 wins seems high, I have to think that number will come down a bit. Injuries always seem to catch up with the Bronx Bombers and I don't expect this season to be any different. So let's set the win line for postseason qualification at 92 in the American League.
I hope you are sitting down for this. With that projected win total needed to make the playoffs, the Red Sox would have to go 62-40 the rest of the way to qualify for meaningful October baseball. That's a win percentage of .607 and would be a mark that the Sox have only reached once in the last four seasons.
Obviously, a lot will have to go right for the Sox to hit this win total, and several fans in Boston will think it's impossible. But with the return of Adam Duvall to the lineup this week, and Trevor Story following not too far behind, there is some reason for optimism for the days ahead.
My biggest concern, as it was before the season, remains this starting rotation. Red Sox starters have the second-worst American League ERA this year (5.27), only ahead of the truly miserable Oakland Athletics. Two of their starters from the Opening Day roster are already in the bullpen and a third in Chris Sale is unsurprisingly back on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.
We always knew it was going to be an uphill climb for this Sox team to reach the postseason, but it will likely be even harder than initially expected with the insane depth in the Sox division. But, anything is possible. Or something like that.
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