Ignore Willson Contreras 'Warning Signs,' Red Sox Fans

Did the Boston Red Sox get it right by acquiring Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals?

Arguably, the answer is yes.

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With Contreras, the Red Sox are getting a 10-year veteran, a much-needed right-handed bat, and a high-end defensive player over at first base. Although the 2025 season was his first as a full-time first baseman, he finished in the 90th percentile in outs above average with six. Plus, the price tag wasn't aggressively high. The Red Sox gave up Hunter Dobbins and two prospects. Yhoiker Fajardo is someone to specifically watch over the years, but he's just 19 years old right now.

The Red Sox got a star

The Red Sox got a guy who can help the team in 2026 while giving up a depth piece in Dobbins and two long-term options.

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield pointed out "warning signs" from the deal, but they arguably aren't anything fans should be too concerned with right now.

"After pursuing and failing to land Pete Alonso, the Red Sox instead turn to Contreras, who has certainly been defined by his consistency, with OPS+ figures of 126, 123, 138 and 123 over the past four seasons, and a slugging percentage between .447 and .468," Doolittle and Schoenfield wrote. "He has two years left on his contract at $36.5 million, plus a $17.5 million club option for 2028 (or a $6 million buyout), giving the Red Sox their first baseman for 2026 and '27 and probably putting Casas on the trade block.

"Contreras feels like a safe bet, but there are some warning signs here. He's entering his age-34 season, in that danger zone, and he's coming off a career-low 7.8 percent walk rate while also seeing his strikeout rate increase the past two seasons. But the bat speed (95th percentile) and hard-hit rate (83rd percentile) remain strong, so though he shouldn't fall off a cliff, his best days are probably behind him. The MLB average OPS at first base was .755 and Contreras' OPS in 2025 was .791, so maybe he remains slightly above average for the position, at least in 2026."

Contreras set a new career high with 142 strikeouts in 2025, but his batting average dropped only five points (.262 to .257). His on-base percentage took a hit (.380 to .344), but he hasn't had a slugging percentage below .438 since 2020. He's only had two seasons in his 10-year career with a slugging percentage below .438 (2018 and 2020).

Boston needs pop in the middle of the lineup. You're going to get that with Contreras. Plus, Fenway Park should be a positive for a right-handed hitter like him.

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