Connor Phillips Could Shine for Reds, But Banking on Him is Risky

While I had Connor Phillips making the Opening Day bullpen for the Cincinnati Reds I know that there is some risk in his game.

I want to take everything I know about Phillips and base it off of last year, but time spent as a baseball fan tells me that’s foolish. A player is not the sample size but much more the sum of the samples. He may very well have undergone a renaissance, but let’s consider the whole picture for a moment before we make him the closer.

Let’s start with 2023 where Phillips saw some modest success in a few MLB games. He didn’t exactly light the world on fire, but he showcased his awesome pitch mix and put together a strikeout rate roughly 5% higher than league average at 27%.

He also showed his weakness in that he walked 13.5% of the batters he faced (league average is around 8%). Something had to give because that’s way too much stress to inflict on ones self when they are on a MLB mound.

Step Back

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Connor Phillips (34) throws during practice, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026, at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz. | Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

He began 2024 in Louisville and proceeded to walk more (15.3%) and strikeout less (19.7%). The Reds decided he needed to hone in on the fundamentals of his mechanics and sent him to their complex in Goodyear where he worked for the rest of the year.

While he didn’t exactly eradicate the walk issue, his command improved to the point that he could work around the walks. Even back at Louisville in 2025, Phillips still walked 14.8% of the batters he faced but his strikeout stuff returned as he fanned just a little over a quarter of the batters who opposed him.

He didn't miss when he got his shot last season. He posted his best walk rate (12.2%) and strikeout rate (32.7%) since his 14 games at Double-A Chattanooga in 2023.

Here’s something to watch out for, though. This spring he has thrown less pitches inside the strike zone than he did last year. I am not saying this will directly translate to failure for him, as all pitchers are just trying to regain their in-game command during the Cactus League, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

With that dip in pitches in the zone also comes a marked drop in the amount of swings he is getting on pitches outside the zone. Last year hitters chased 25% of his pitches that were not strikes. So far in the Cactus League that number is just 13%.

Again, this may all go away very quickly for Phillips. The problem is, it’s not as if there is a strong baseline of command for us to fall back on. Right now we see Phillips as “effectively wild.” When you drop the first part of that and a pitcher is simply wild, that pitcher is not an asset to a major league bullpen.

Here’s hoping Phillips can continue to be effective.