Slump in The Queen City: Analyzing the Cincinnati Reds' Offensive Struggles

It’s May 21 and the Cincinnati Reds are 19-28. This year was supposed to be different. This was the year where Reds fans finally had big expectations. This was the year Reds fans thought reaching the playoffs SHOULD happen. Where has it all gone wrong?

The answer is might be more simple than Reds fans want to believe. As a diehard Reds fan myself, we are always looking for someone or something to blame.

However, I think there are two reasons why the Reds have really struggled since getting off to a 14-10 start and they are probably reasons you don’t want to hear.

Injuries/Suspensions

TJ Friedl was supposed to be the heart and soul of this offense. He is a guy who brings energy and a guy that you can pencil in the leadoff spot against right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers. Friedl is the guy who you can count to play almost every single day.

In 2023, Friedl slashed .279/.352/.467 and had a wRC+ of 116. To put that in perspective, average wRC+ is 100.

He fractured his wrist diving for a ball in center field on March 16 and was out until May 7. Not even a week later, he was hit by a pitch and fractured his thumb. Without Friedl atop the lineup, this offense has been a shell of itself. There is no timetable for his return.

Matt McLain burst onto the scene last season and quickly became one of the Reds best hitters.

Last year, McLain slashed .290/.357/.507 and had a wRC+ of 128. He also had 14 stolen bases.

McLain injured his shoulder trying to make a diving catch in spring training. The Reds reported that it was a minor injury. However, after a second opinion, it was deemed that he would need surgery and be out until at least August.

McLain’s recovery seems to be going well, but if the team does not get hot here soon, it might be too late when he comes back.

In early March, the Reds found out that Noelvi Marte was going to be suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s Performance Enhancing Drug Policy.

Marte was the Reds No. 1 prospect and was called up late last year and had an instant impact. He appeared in 35 games for the Reds and slashed .316/.366/.456/.822 and had a wRC+ of 120.

Marte can return to the Reds for game 81, but will be ineligible for the postseason if this team makes it that far.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was going to be the Reds power bat in the middle of the order. After coming up last season, he slashed .270/.328/.477 and had a wRC+ of 112.

However, he really struggled to start 2024, slashing .190/.220/.293 with a wRC+ of 38.

In late April, Encarnacion-Strand was hit in the hand with a pitch. A week and a half later, the Reds found a fracture in his hand. He has been out since, and there is no clear timetable for his return.

Current Core Not Producing

Elly De La Cruz (132), Spencer Steer (103), and Tyler Stephenson (128) are the only three Reds players who currently boast a wRC+ over 100.

Although Steer has a wRC+ of 103, he has really struggled in May. Since May 1, he is slashing .167/.274/.259 with a wRC+ of 55. That timeline lines up with the struggles of the Reds' offense. The Reds really need Steer to be a big part of the offense with all of the injuries and right now, that simply isn’t happening.

De La Cruz is only 22 years old and is still learning daily. Expecting him to carry this offense just isn't fair at this stage of his career. After a red-hot April, he is slashing .219/.296/.313 with a wRC+ of 73 in May.

Jake Fraley is considered one of the Reds' best hitters against right-handed pitching. He battled a sickness for more than a week and apparently lost around 10 pounds.

Fraley has a slash line of .272/.327/.359 and a wRC+ of 93. He has only six extra base hits on the season. Since Fraley usually only plays against RHP, the Reds need him to be above average when he does play. That has not been the case so far.

Will Benson came on and was a huge reason why the Reds offense was successful in 2023. He slashed .275/.365/.498 with a wRC+ of 128.

This year, he has regressed big time. A lot of that can be blamed on him having to face left-handed pitching with TJ Friedl being out of the lineup.

He is slashing .098/.245/.220 with a wRC+ of 38 against lefties. He is still above average against right-handers, slashing .225/.301/.450 with a wRC+ of 108. He has been forced to play way more against lefties which has affected his numbers big time.

When the Reds signed Jeimer Candelario in the offseason, they thought they were getting a consistent bat who could play multiple positions and someone who would fit right into the middle of the order. As with some of the other guys, Candelario is being asked to handle more than the load he can handle offensively.

He really struggled in April, but has slightly turned the corner in May. The overall numbers are still ugly. He's slashing .220/.285/.387 on the season to go along with a wRC+ of 86. It's just not good enough.

Jonathan India was supposed to change roles and be the ultimate utility guy this year, even playing some in the outfield.

However, when McLain got injured and Marte was suspended, he went back to his normal role at second base. India has declined ever since he won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2021.

This year, he is slashing .219/.327/.295 with a wRC+ of 81. The Reds need more production from him.

Get Healthy

It comes down to two things. The Reds simply need to get healthy and need Marte to return from his suspension, but they also need their current core to play better.

With McLain, Friedl, Marte, and Encarnacion-Strand all out of the lineup, this team is missing 127 extra-base hits and 51 stolen bases from 2023. Most teams wouldn't be able to withstand that type of loss at the plate.

The combination of injuries and the current core's inability to produce offensively has led the Reds from 14-10 to 19-28. The season is getting away from them quickly and some of their guys will return this season, but it'll be too late if the offense doesn’t figure it out soon.

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