Is Tanner Gordon Worth More Than His ERA Suggests?

Tanner Gordon looks unremarkable if you are simply looking at his Baseball-Reference page. Look beyond his 5.38 ERA, however, and there may be something the Rockies can develop.

He proved this on Wednesday, delivering his best start of the season in a 13-1 win over the Washington Nationals, allowing one run on six hits across a career-high seven innings. He struck out five, did not issue a walk and retired 10 of the final 12 hitters he faced.

The fact that the start came away from Coors adds to a noteworthy split between Gordon’s home and road performance.

A Different Pitcher Away From Coors

Tanner Gordon throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At home, Gordon's ERA sits at a sky-high 7.89 at home compared with 2.68 on the road. With a similar number of innings pitched in both environments, the accompanying numbers suggest the gap goes beyond one or two disastrous outings. Opponents are hitting .332/.369/.652 against Gordon at home compared with .278/.299/.418 on the road, via Fangraphs.

The lack of free passes stands out regardless of where Gordon pitches. His 4.1% walk rate ranks in the 99th percentile according to Statcast. The problem comes when hitters put the ball in the air.

Gordon’s 35.8% fly-ball rate sits well above the MLB average of 24%, and the consequences have been dramatically different depending on where he pitches. He has allowed only three home runs on the road compared with 14 at Coors Field, where the hitter-friendly environment makes every fly ball a dangerous proposition.

A control freak who pitches to contact sounds great on paper, but at Coors Field, that profile can fall apart quickly. Gordon is not an overpowering pitcher. His 18.9% strikeout rate sits in the bottom quarter of the league, while his fastball averages 92.8 mph, hardly imposing in an era populated by arms like Jacob Misiorowski.

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon (29) throws a pitch. Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That fastball is backed by a slider and changeup, with a curveball and sinker making the occasional cameo as well. The arsenal has produced manageable contact away from Coors, but without overpowering velocity, bringing the same profile to Denver leaves Gordon asking for a new baseball far more often than he would like.

Historically, some of the Rockies’ best pitching seasons have come from starters capable of keeping the ball on the ground. Ubaldo Jiménez did both. His fastball averaged a major-league-best 96.1 mph in 2010, while he generated ground balls at a 48.8% clip. His best ground-ball rate came in 2008; it reached 54.4%. Kyle Freeland offers another example, posting a 46% ground-ball rate in 2018 during his best season in terms of run prevention. Both marks sat above the current MLB average of 44.1% and well above Gordon’s 33.7%.

So, yes. Gordon appears to be a better pitcher than his 5.38 ERA suggests, and his numbers might look considerably better in greener pastures. Real-life baseball is not a video game; teams cannot simply drop players into any environment and expect identical results. Gordon appears at his best when his command allows him to manage contact without getting punished for every ball in the air. As of now, Coors Field does not maximize that skill set.

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