Assessing Royals’ Options After Sliding in MLB Draft Lottery
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As it turns out, the Kansas City Royals can't even win when it comes to losing as a potential top-five pick turned into a pumpkin.
MLB has the most convoluted draft in sports and decided to add another layer with this year's MLB Draft Lottery. To combat tanking, the first 18 picks in this year's draft were put into the hands of chance. The Royals, a small-market team, will be prohibited from receiving a selection in the lottery for three consecutive years. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the lottery system.
Kansas City went into the lottery with the fifth-best odds (10%) to land the top overall pick, which the Pittsburgh Pirates eventually claimed. To be frank, this lottery went about as poorly as it could have. Not one, but two of the Royals' American League Central rivals now pick before them, with the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers beating their pre-draft positioning and nabbing top-five selections.
The Royals' strategy in recent years has centered around drafting players higher than they were projected to be selected in the hope of signing them to a "below-slot" deal, so they could use the savings to sign picks later in the draft that might cost more. Hopefully, this new era of Royals management and leadership focuses more on signing the best available players.
With that being said, let's look at some of the options the Royals might have with the eighth overall pick, which was given a slot value of $5,439,500 last season.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. — OF, Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt s Enrique Bradfield Jr. hits the ball during the Smashville Showdown home run derby at Hawkins Field in Nashville, Tenn., Monday, Sept. 19, 2022. Vandypredshrd 091922 An 032
If there was ever a "Royals" pick, it would be Enrique Bradfield Jr., a great defender with 80-grade speed and a developing power game that may or may not be fully realized. Bradfield, in college, has been remarkable for the Commodores and is the spark plug that makes this collegiate baseball powerhouse go. The main issue with drafting a player like Bradfield is that the Royals have gotten burned in the past by players like Adalberto Mondesi and Christian Colon, who promised to be great top-of-the-order table setters but never amounted to much.
Bradfield hit .317 for Vandy last year, which was down from his .336 mark in 2020, but he did see his OPS rise from .865 to .913. An area of concern was his play in the Cape Cod League, where he posted a pedestrian slash line of .194/.348/.194 in 11 games. Nevertheless, Bradfield is a potential star that, if developed right, could emerge into a peak player somewhere between Michael Bourn & Lorenzo Cain or could settle as a Billy Hamilton-esque player if the bat can't play at a high level.
Chase Dollander — RHP, Tennessee
Tennessee s Chase Dollander (11) throws a pitch during the game between University of Memphis and Tennessee on Sunday, November 6, 2022, at The Ballpark at Jackson in Jackson, Tenn. The teams played an 18-inning game as the last official game of the fall season. Tennessee outscored Memphis 22-4.
If it were any other team than the Royals making this pick, it would be a slam-dunk, no-brainer, "walk to the register so they can pay me my money" type of pick. Chase Dollander finished with a 10-0 record for the Volunteers with a 2.39 ERA and a 108/13 K/BB ratio over 79 innings while touching the upper-90s with his explosive fastball as part of his devastating three-pitch mix. Given the Royals' inconsistent development of college pitchers, however, it makes sense to give this selection a bit of pause. Dollander has been projected to go as high as No. 1 overall but is mainly judged to be a top-five selection.
The only real reason I'm keeping Dollander on this list is that Brady Singer managed to drop into the Royals' lap in 2018 after being perhaps the best collegiate pitcher in the draft. So light a prayer candle, everybody, and hope Hollander slips.
Blake Mitchell — C, Sinton HS (Texas) or Kyle Teel — C, Virginia
Jun 22, 2021; Omaha, Nebraska, USA; Virginia Cavaliers catcher Kyle Teel (3) singles in a run in the first inning against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
If you're looking for the slot value draft selection that screams Royals, here it is. Blake Mitchell is the top prep catching prospect in the country, while Kyle Teel is regarded as the best overall catching prospect in the college ranks.
Mitchell is projected to offer more power behind the plate with a strong throwing arm keeping him behind the dish for the foreseeable future if he doesn't commit to being a pitcher. Teel, on the other hand, offers more of a thoughtful approach at the plate and is a prospect whose athleticism gives teams the option to move him around the diamond as needed. But, like Bradfield, he also struggled in the Cape Cod League, so he'll need to shine this year to maintain his first-round draft position.
Salvador Perez is not getting any younger, and it doesn't look like catching is necessarily in the long-term plans for M.J. Melendez with both Luca Tresh and Carter Jensen being the only real possible in-house options for Kansas City in the future. A team can never have too many catching prospects and if the Royals are looking to save money this draft, these selections could make sense.
Hurston Waldrep — RHP, Florida
If the Royals miss out on Dollander, Hurston Waldrep is not a bad consolation prize with a fastball that has clipped 98 mph, paired with a slider-changeup mix that has made him possibly the second-best collegiate arm in this draft. Waldrep will move out from the obscurity of Southern Miss to the bright lights of Florida this season and if he can perform against SEC-level competition, it'll do wonders for his draft stock.
Waldrep shares a lot of similarities with Jack Leiter, the Texas Rangers' 2021 first-rounder. Right now, Waldrep is getting by with his power fastball and slider and still needs to develop a better overall feel/trust of his changeup. This is a player that could go from a top-15 to a top-10 to a top-five selection depending on how he performs for the Gators.
Jacob Wilson — INF, Grand Canyon
Jacob Wilson exploded on the scene last year with Grand Canyon, putting up an OPS of 1.004 in 59 games while mixing an excellent bat-to-ball skill set with a plate approach that saw him strikeout only seven times in 275 plate appearances. He also excelled outside of college this year, posting solid numbers in the Cape Cod League to go along with some strong outings for Team USA this year.
The power won't blow anybody away, however, he still cranked 12 home runs last year so there is the possibility for some development in that area. Another area for improvement is Wilson's defense. While not necessarily below average, it won't be winning Gold Gloves any time soon. Instead, he profiles better as a rangy second baseman, where all his traits compare favorably against other players at the position rather than trying to have him match the performance of the elite shortstops in the league.
Wilson is a player that could absolutely fly through the minor leagues. Seeing how the Royals may need a middle infielder in the near future, he could fill that role.
As disappointing as this draft lottery was for the Royals, they didn't get dropped out of the top 10, which is nice. However, their chance to land elite prospects like LSU outfielder Dylan Crews and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez went from slim to none in just over 10 minutes. Bobby Witt Jr. was the last time the Royals nailed their first-round selection, with Brady Singer being the only other recent success story, so they need to nail this pick to ensure they don't have to undergo another rebuild.
