Don’t Let Anyone Tell You It’s Time to Worry About Bobby Witt Jr.
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Let's list some season stats of three baseball players. Hints: All three of them are at the big-league level and all three of them are under the age of 25.
- Player A: .227/.370/.545 line, .915 OPS, 167 wRC+
- Player B: .120/.214/.160 line, .374 OPS, 18 wRC+
- Player C: .107/.138/.250 line, .388 OPS, -1 wRC+
From the looks of it, Player A has been mopping the floor with the competition. Players B and C don't stand a chance, right? Not so fast. Let's do the same exercise, except with a smaller sample size.
- Player AA: .000/.231/.000 line, .231 OPS, -4 wRC+
- Player BB: .071/.133/.143 line, .276 OPS, -20 wRC+
- Player CC: .125/.176/.250 line, .426 OPS, 16 wRC+
Player A is Detroit Tigers rookie Spencer Torkelson. Player AA is Torkelson over his last four games. Player B is Seattle Mariners rookie Julio Rodriguez, and BB is him over his last four games. Player C is Kansas City Royals (and MLB) top prospect Bobby Witt Jr., and CC is Witt over — you guessed it — his last four games.
Apr 7, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. (7) runs to first base after hitting a go-ahead RBI double during the eighth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The 2022 MLB season is still extremely young. A player currently in first-week MVP conversations could have two bad games in a row and have his numbers paint him as nothing more than an average contributor. A struggling star needs just one or two big performances in order to make everyone forget about their beginning-of-season slump. Teams haven't even reached the 10-game mark — it's impossible to draw final conclusions about individual players.
That same logic hasn't been applying to rookies, though. The trio of Torkelson, Rodriguez and Witt is regarded as one of the best in recent memory, so their expectations were sky-high heading into the year. Their spring training dominance added fuel to that fire. All three are struggling at various points in their minuscule sample sizes. What gives?
Again, minuscule sample sizes.
Let's shift this back to a Witt-centric focus. It's too early to assert that he either does or doesn't belong with everyday MLB players long-term. If anything, though, his highlight-reel defensive plays and flashes at the plate in seven games should point towards the latter. With that said, he absolutely belongs amongst his peers in a rookie class that is very inconsistent to start 2022. This shouldn't come as a huge surprise; top prospects can have rough stretches. It happened just last year, after all.
Apr 7, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. (7) is introduced before the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
In 2021, Tampa Bay Rays phenom infielder Wander Franco debuted. In his first 15 games, he hit .197 with a wRC+ of 65. It wasn't until two months into his season that his overall numbers were acceptable. Franco is now regarded as one of the game's rising stars, but he certainly didn't start off on the right foot.
Speaking of which, Seattle Mariners prospect Jarred Kelenic debuted in May. The former No. 6 overall pick was terrible through his first 31 outings, as his line read .099/.187/.171 with a wRC+ of 6. Heck, he's still struggling to begin 2022. Baseball is hard, and it takes some players longer than others to figure things out.
Anyone who's pressing the "big red button" on Witt, a 21-year-old on a team that boasts several black holes in its lineup as currently constructed, is overreacting. Simply because Witt didn't pick up in the regular season right where he left off in spring training doesn't mean a thing. He's still MLB's top prospect, he still possesses tremendous raw power and he still has the potential to hit for a solid average and limit strikeouts a decent amount. A slow start didn't change his profile.
Apr 7, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. (7) celebrates after hitting a go-ahead RBI double during the eighth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Early in his career, Witt is seeing just 34.5% of pitches inside the strike zone. That's 10.5% below league average, per FanGraphs. He's pairing that with a O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the zone) of 43.2%, which is 13.2% above the league average of 30. Pitchers are challenging him with offerings either on the shadow of the plate or are just flat-out tossing waste pitches, and he has yet to adjust. Once he does, his numbers will rise.
There was always going to be an element of swing-and-miss to Witt's game, but never to the degree it is right now. When he got promoted from Double-A to Triple-A last year, his strikeout rate dropped. History shows that not only will he strike out less, but he'll get on base more and settle into a more patient and mature approach. It should only be a matter of time and comfort.
Baseball is hard, and top prospects don't always come out of the gate showing why they have that status. Witt is no different and while he's struggling now, it isn't time to worry. Don't let anyone tell you that today, and don't let anyone tell you that in a week or two. Until the season is several weeks — or even a couple of months — old, Witt has time to bounce back.
