Royals Free Agent Pitching Targets: Johnny Cueto
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Kansas City Royals fans remember the last time Johnny Cueto was on the team, as he was an integral part of the 2015 World Series-winning club and had some impressive games in that run. Fast forward to the present, and Cueto put together a surprising season for a 36-year-old in 2022 after a couple of down years in San Fransisco.
Last year, Cueto signed a minor league deal in April with the Chicago White Sox as a depth option. Lo and behold in May, his contract was purchased by the White Sox and he got his shot to prove that he had something left in the tank. He took that opportunity and ran with it.
Here is one stat that describes Cueto's year. Of his 24 starts, 18 of them were quality starts, which also included a streak of 10 in a row. His 2022 was a surprise for many, for differing reasons. Let's get into the weirdness that was that campaign.
Starting with the basic stats, Cueto had a 3.35 ERA, 5.80 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9 this past season. One of these things is not like the other, as he put up a career-low strikeout rate while throwing 158.1 innings. That could mean a couple of things that may be concerning: he either can't generate whiffs like he used to, or he gave up a lot of contact (or both).
To continue the weirdness, both of those things happened. Cueto had a whiff% of 17.6, which is in the 3rd percentile on Baseball Savant, and a contact% of 84.5. While this might appear to be worrisome, this is actually what he planned to do as he had a philosophical change in his pitching. To add to his new approach, Cueto was surprisingly good at getting hitters to chase at pitches outside the zone. He placed in the 74th percentile in chase rate with 31.9 chase%. Let's take a peek at his run values.
For reference, Cueto throws three different fastballs (cutter, four-seam, and a sinker), as well as a changeup and two breaking pitches (slider and curve). With that information and his new pitch-to-contact approach, which of these is his best pitch?
If you thought sinker, you were on the right track, but it's actually his four-seam fastball. It holds a -8 run value compared to -4 on the sinker. His fastball was very good in 2022, as it only got hit at a .198 average and was slugged at a measly .279 clip. It isn't anything too special in terms of its actual movement, but it does have 12.1 inches of horizontal movement which is really good.
One thing that has helped Cueto with his pitch production is his famed "shimmy" and how he balances his pitches. Everyone knows about how he uses his shimmy to mess with hitters' timing, but his five main pitches had a throw percentage range of 16.5% to 23.7%. This means that there was almost a one-in-five chance to guess what pitch he was throwing, also ignoring where it was going to be thrown.
Another thing about Cueto's pitches is that he uses all of them as putaway pitches. Putaway pitches are what pitches are thrown in two-strike counts. Cueto's PutAway% for each of his five pitches is in the range of 13.6-17.4%, which means he uses all of his pitches in two-strike scenarios almost equally.
By the start of the 2023 season, Cueto will be 37 and according to Spotrac, his market value will be around $14.7 million a year. He will probably want a one-year deal favoring a competitive team due to his age, so the Royals may have to overpay for his services. If they lose out on the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, then reuniting with Cueto would be a good backup plan as both a mentor and pitcher in terms of value.
