Bailey Ober's Fastball Velocity is Trending in the Wrong Direction

After beginning his spring training with multiple bullpen sessions designed to get his mechanics back to where he wanted, Twins pitcher Bailey Ober made his 2026 Grapefruit League debut on March 6. The outing went smoothly. Ober threw 25 pitches over two perfect innings, getting five whiffs and allowing no hard contact. His average fastball velocity was just under 90 miles per hour, but that figured to increase closer to his 91-92 career norm over time.

The problem is that two starts later, that hasn't happened. In fact, it's been the opposite. Ober's average fastball velocity has gone down in each of his last two spring outings, sitting at just above 88 miles per hour on Tuesday afternoon.

It started in his second outing, last Thursday, when Ober's average fastball velo dipped a full tick down to 88.8. He threw 53 pitches in that start and didn't get through three innings, allowing a run on five hits and a walk over 2.2 frames. He did strike out a couple batters, but only one of Ober's fastballs in that appearance was over 90 MPH.

And on Tuesday, the downward trend continued. Ober went four innings against the Phillies, throwing 58 pitches. The results weren't too bad: He allowed one run on two hits and two walks, including a solo home run, over four frames. The concerning part is that Ober generated only three whiffs and did not strike out a batter. His fastball averaged 88.2 MPH and never cracked 90, topping out at 89.9.

Bailey Ober's average fastball velocity was down even more today vs. the Phillies.

Start #1 — 89.9 mph
Start #2 — 88.8 mph
Start #3 — 88.2 mph

Ober threw 58 pitches today and none of them cracked 90 mph. He also failed to record a strikeout and got just three swing-and-misses.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) March 17, 2026

Three starts and 8.2 innings into his spring training, Ober has a 2.08 ERA. But unless his velocity ticks back up soon, it's hard to feel optimistic about his chances at having a bounce-back 2025 campaign. He's got as many walks (3) as strikeouts so far. That may be survivable in spring training, but regular season MLB lineups might feast on the stuff Ober is currently putting out there.

Bombi bomb! 💣 pic.twitter.com/NVV5D0A04Z
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 17, 2026

To be clear, Ober isn't a pitcher who has ever had big-time fastball velocity. When he's on, he succeeds by changing speeds, hitting his spots, and keeping hitters off balance to generate weak contact. Across 88 starts over his first four MLB seasons, he recorded a very solid 3.76 ERA with a fastball averaging in the 91-92 MPH range.

But his velocity does matter. Last year was a disaster for Ober, who had a 5.10 ERA across 27 starts, including a 9.00 ERA in a brutal month of June. It's probably not a coincidence that his fastball averaged a career-low 90.3 miles per hour.

With Pablo Lopez out for the season, the Twins really need to get the pre-2025 version of Ober back if they're going to be competitive this year. That could certainly still happen, but this downward trend in velocity doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. It'll be interesting to see if he can take a step in the right direction in that department in his final spring training start, which should come on Sunday or early next week.