- The Pels won outright as a double-digit underdog in Houston last night. Can they turn around and give the Nuggets a game at home on zero days' rest?
Here are Three at 3's top bets for Wednesday.
1. Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks (+7)
7:30 pm ET
The Mavericks have to be feeling good coming off of a three-game homestand in which they went 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread, narrowly missing an upset of the Raptors in a 123-120 defeat on Sunday. It would be easy to assume that Dallas will therefore continue its moment by rolling over a weak Knicks team at MSG on Wednesday, but check out the Mavs' home-road splits: 18-7 at home (18-7 ATS) and 4-20 on the road (12-12 ATS). As a favorite on the road, Dallas is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread. Prior to tonight, the most points they've laid on the road is six it Phoenix on Dec. 13, and they sputtered in a 99-89 outright loss. Even against the lowly Knicks, the Mavericks can't be trusted as heavy favorites away from home.
Pick: Knicks +7
2. Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards (+1)
To no one's surprise, life without Victor Oladipo has been rough for the Indiana Pacers. They were upset 106-103 on the road against the reeling Grizzlies on Saturday (MEM +5), and were completely overwhelmed in a 132-100 home loss to the Warriors on Monday (GSW -7). Now the Pacers will leave home again for a four-game road trip, which begins tonight in Washington. With Tyreke Evans questionable for Indianapolis, Edmond Sumner—who was in the D-League as recently as last week and shot 1-10 against Golden State—could be in Indiana's starting lineup. While the Wizards lost last night in Cleveland to a terrible Cavaliers team, they're 3-0 this season (3-0 ATS) in the second legs of away-to-home back-to-backs. Bet against the reeling Pacers as they scramble to find a new identity.
Pick: Wizards (+1)
3. Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans (+9)
Three at 3's Tuesday fade of the Pelicans clearly didn't work out—New Orleans not only covered after closing as a 13.5-point underdog in Houston, but pulled off a 121-116 upset—so we'll scramble back the other way and back NOLA as a big home 'dog against the Nuggets tonight. The ongoing Anthony Davis saga that was presumed to have caused dejection in the New Orleans locker room evidently served as motivation, as the Pelicans—and center Jahlil Okafor in particular (27 points, 12 rebounds)—played inspired basketball last night. Denver has struggled on the road this season (12-11 SU, 9-14 ATS), and is only 1-1 (0-2 ATS) as a road favorite of at least 6.5 points this season, failing to cover by an average margin of 12.5 points in those two contests. Especially with Denver's second-leading scorer Jamal Murray out with an ankle injury tonight, this line is too high.
Pick: New Orleans +9
Overall Record: 115-102-4