The Coaching Decisions That Could Swing the 2020 NBA Playoffs
There will be plenty of star talent on display on the floor in Orlando in the coming months, and there’s an undercurrent of star power in the coaching ranks across the NBA. Gregg Popovich, Doc Rivers and Mike D’Antoni lead a decorated veteran core, while relative youngsters Nick Nurse, Brad Stevens and even Taylor Jenkins have established themselves as some of the game’s top minds. In crucial situations, the right coaching move can swing a series. The strange conditions in Orlando could make coaching decisions all the more important.
So what will be the key maneuvers that swing the 2020 postseason? We at The Crossover detailed the most impactful decisions that lie ahead in Orlando.
Nick Nurse’s Zones
The Warriors didn’t have Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson for significant stretches in the 2019 Finals, but Toronto didn’t exactly cruise to a championship. Golden State won Game 2 in Toronto with Durant sidelined, evening the series as it went back to the Bay Area. Yet despite the loss, Nick Nurse made a discovery that shaped the series.
Nurse deployed a box-and-1 on Steph Curry down the stretch in Game 2, freezing a Warriors’ offense that didn’t have the playmaking to exploit Toronto’s trap. The strategy was employed throughout the series, especially in Game 6 with both of Curry’s star running mates injured. In retrospect, Nurse’s decision was revealing. Toronto has turned to a zone more than any team in the league this season, unafraid to utilize the scheme against the East’s top talents. If Toronto squares off against the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Ben Simmons in Orlando, another creative decision could be on the horizon. Nurse is the NBA’s premier mad scientist. The NBA restart will be another test of his brilliance.
Malone Plays Bully Ball
The Nuggets trotted out the largest starting lineup in recent memory in their scrimmage against Washington on Wednesday, pairing 7’2” unicorn-in-training Bol Bol with Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee. Paul Millsap was the smallest Nugget on the floor to start the game, forming what is effectively the Western Conference’s antidote to the Rockets. Malone won’t be quite as extreme when the regular season begins, but his scrimmage experiment is worth noting.
Denver has the personnel to truly upsize in the postseason. Jokic and Millsap were starting lineup fixtures in 2019-20, and Jerami Grant earned the occasional spot start. The aforementioned trio played just 10 minutes together this season, though there’s still a way for Denver to pull off a supersized frontcourt. Enter Michael Porter Jr.
The rookie out of Missouri has shown a silky shooting stroke in limited action this season, showing off his potential as the former No. 2 recruit in the nation. Porter’s talent is undeniable, though he's logged just 14 minutes per game in 2019-20. It's time for Mike Malone to let the youngster loose. Denver’s frontcourt depth is perhaps its best asset. Malone should lean on his big bodies in the postseason.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Brett Brown’s Gamble
The COVID-19 hiatus may have quieted the conversation surrounding Brett Brown’s job status, though it’s hard to assume Philadelphia’s head coach is on solid ground entering the 2020 playoffs. The Sixers entered the season with legitimate Finals hopes. They’ve met those expectations with a stalled offense and a disastrous road record. Yet it’s hard to shake Philadelphia as a fringe Finals contender. The Sixers remain perhaps the most confounding team in basketball.
Brown is at least trying to change things up in Orlando. The Sixers will move Ben Simmons to power forward to resume the season, which in theory should help loosen the clog in the middle of Philadelphia’s attack. Simmons still will run the show in transition, where he’s frankly a menace for opposing defenses. But he’ll be a glorified roll man and dunker in the halfcourt. The move has its merits, again, in theory. Simmons is averaging a healthy 1.06 points per roll possession in 2019-20, and he spent significant time in the dunker’s spot near the baseline in last year’s playoffs. Are Brown and the Sixers investing a lot of faith in Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz? Sure. But the previous state of affairs just wasn’t working. The effectiveness of Brown’s gamble may swing Philly’s season.
D’Antoni Rides the Wave
The Rockets began to veer into the world of small-ball in January, and they entrenched their commitment in early February when they swapped Clint Capela for Robert Covington. And Houston has only doubled down during the NBA’s suspension. The Rockets cut their lone rotational center in favor of the injured David Nwaba, and they signed Luc Mbah a Moute instead of an emergency center. D’Antoni and the Rockets have no choice but to pair James Harden and Russell Westbrook with three wings. Houston’s rotation is historic in its lack of frontcourt size.
Early returns suggest a team that has the upside to compete with a small-ball unit. At their best, the Rockets are an elite switch-everything defense, wreaking havoc in passing lanes and at the rim. P.J. Tucker is a truly sturdy rim protector despite standing 6’5”, while Covington and Westbrook are elite turnover generators. Covington has been a dominant defensive piece in 14 games with Houston. He’ll be counted on more than ever in Orlando. D’Antoni and the Rockets will ride their mighty small-ball unit as far as it takes them in the 2020 playoffs.
Vogel’s Frontcourt Maneuvers
The Lakers were roundly mocked for their offseason additions of Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee, with many dismissing Los Angeles’ Finals chances due to a shoddy rotation around its two superstars. Both Lakers’ big men have proved the doubters wrong this season. Not only have Howard and McGee played well in their own right, but they’ve both also posted impressive efficiency numbers alongside Anthony Davis.
Los Angeles’ newest star lobbied to play the four this season, a major reason for head coach Frank Vogel's heavy use of Howard and McGee. Many assumed that setup would dissipate in the postseason, with Davis likely to move to the five as another wing took the floor. But that hasn’t necessarily been the case in 2019-20, and Los Angeles has taken considerable hits to its backcourt and wing rotation in recent weeks. With Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo and potentially Kentavious Caldwell-Pope missing time in Orlando, the Lakers could trot out a heavy dose of bully ball. Vogel will need to strike the right stylistic balance for LeBron to win his fourth ring.
