2023 NBA Draft Big Board: Biggest Risers and Fallers
We’re starting to gain a little bit of clarity on the 2023 draft, with the first six weeks or so of college games in the rearview and NBA teams casting their usual, wide net on draft-eligible prospects. As we move toward holiday breaks, followed by conference play, it’s a good juncture to unveil SI’s first Big Board of the season.
In past years, I’ve written through the entire big board 1-through-60—this time around, we’re going with a new approach for the early-season board, focusing instead on some of the key risers, fallers and new arrivals in the mix, with the full board available as a list here. In the interest of variety and depth, I’ve tried to touch on players I haven’t discussed as much to this point in the season.
As usual, the Big Board is a fluid list that represents my personal, subjective opinion on this draft class as informed by my own in-person scouting and ongoing conversations with NBA front office personnel and others around the basketball landscape. This is not a mock draft, so team fit is not taken into account, and it’s also an imperfect exercise, considering that teams have the advantage of creating boards tailored to their situations.
Note that some prospects may come on and off the board entirely over the course of the season, as these projections shift and circumstances change.
Anthony Black, G, Arkansas (Rank: 9)
Entering the season I was a little bit concerned with how well Black’s offensive game would translate to college. I have been relieved to learn that those worries have turned out to be mostly unfounded. The 6'7" freshman guard has exceeded expectations, owning a 62.9% true shooting clip and shooting 66% at the rim, per Barttorvik.com’s data. The extended absence of fellow freshman Nick Smith gave Black a bit more room to spread his wings as a scorer and playmaker, and he cemented himself as a lottery candidate with a pair of 26-point games at the Maui Invitational in November.
Black was a star football player and a two-sport athlete for some time, which led to him being a bit of a late bloomer in the high school ranks. As his skill level with the ball has improved, his athletic gifts have become a lot more functional attacking the rim. He’s also shooting 40% from three through 10 games, a number I expect will regress a bit due to his subpar shooting mechanics. But Black’s improvement as a scorer and combination of size and physical potential add a real layer of upside to the feel and passing chops that were already present in his game. As long as he makes enough shots and can threaten defenses off the catch, whether or not he’s a full-time point guard feels like an immaterial concern. Look at how Josh Giddey’s NBA career has begun, and you start to get the idea behind the lottery upside here.
Jett Howard, SG, Michigan (13)
Jett Howard is rising up the NBA draft board.
Peter van den Berg/USA TODAY Sports
Howard is not a flashy player, nor does he necessitate a particularly complex evaluation: he’s got positional size (though his listed 6'8" is a bit generous), he shoots the ball quite well from distance, he has solid feel and enough of a handle to prescribe basic offensive growth potential, and he has NBA bloodlines as the son of Michigan coach Juwan Howard. All of these things should ultimately work in his favor as teams parse the freshman class and hedge their bets in the first round.
Howard is off to an excellent start and has played a major role out of the gate for the Wolverines, shooting 60% on twos and 42% from distance. He has shown the ability to catch and shoot off movement and releases the ball quickly. He may not be too far away from plugging in and adding value in the pros.
He obviously benefits from playing for a coach who’s intimately familiar with how to optimize him, but it’s probably not a coincidence that his current role is basically the same as what he’ll be asked to do in the NBA: space the floor, score out of secondary actions and defend his position adequately. At any rate, Howard is much further along than many of his peers who were more touted entering college and has seen his standing rise accordingly.
Noah Clowney, F, Alabama (18)
Mostly lost in all the Brandon Miller buzz has been the fact that Alabama has a second potential one-and-done on the roster. Clowney didn’t enter college with much hype and didn’t play for a shoe-circuit AAU team, with his recruitment never quite blowing up nationally. The South Carolina native has hit the ground running in a starting role for the Crimson Tide, putting himself on the radar for NBA front offices at the PK85 tourney and turning in a notable showing in a massive road win at Houston over the weekend. While it’s not clear-cut yet whether Clowney winds up in the 2023 draft, he’s making a fascinating case for himself in nonconference play, bolstered by the fact he doesn’t turn 19 until July.
Clowney has a great frame at his listed 6'10" and has demonstrated some ability to play outside-in, skilled enough to attack a closeout and showing some shooting potential—he has a pretty quick release, and you can argue that 26% from three is passable for someone his age and size. He’s shooting 72% on twos, and his perimeter functionality coupled with nice rebounding and shot-blocking ability make him a pretty impactful player already. It’s hard to find these types of multi-tooled prospects with legitimate NBA tools, and when you consider all the context, Clowney’s draft appeal may only broaden as conference play gets underway. He’s not a flashy shot-creator like his teammate Miller, but he’s nearly two years younger, and he does all the other important things at a pretty solid level already. I don’t know for sure that the gap between the two as long-term prospects is all that great.
Keyonte George, SG, Baylor (19)
A couple weeks ago I caught what may have been the low watermark of Baylor’s entire season, as the Bears took a 26-point loss at Marquette in which basically nothing went right. When things go that wrong for a team, it’s usually not worth drawing sweeping conclusions, but what we saw from George was certainly concerning, and it would have been difficult to leave that game with much excitement about him as a lottery-level draft pick. He entered college with the pedigree, but it’s evident that George has a lot of maturing left to do, and scouts will want to see him show more mental toughness and make more of a positive impact in situations like that where Baylor faces real adversity.
My concerns with George are less about his skill level and more about how everything translates, considering he’s listed generously at 6'4”, isn’t an elite athlete, and plays primarily to create shots for himself, without a ton of regard for the situation. His turnovers have been concerning and his shot selection bordering on selfish, and he has not been a bastion of efficiency. His defensive effort too frequently stems from whether or not he’s having a good individual game on the other end. George is quick, shifty with the ball and a capable three-point shooter, but a lot of his scoring production has been volume-based. As a smallish combo guard whose value will stem mostly from putting the ball in the basket, he’s walking the fine line between being viewed as “guard with nice creative upside” and “guard who ultimately plays a replaceable role.”
How George performs in conference play will be telling, but it’s notable that several NBA scouts have separately brought up Jaden Hardy to me as a point of comparison. Hardy fell to the 35th pick last year due to some similar concerns, but has been lighting up the G League since, and was arguably nice value for Dallas. All of that is to say that I don’t know yet where this ultimately falls for George, who has time to dictate the tone of this discussion moving forward, but should not be viewed as a lock for the lottery in the way some might expect.
Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF (21)
Hendricks was a four-star recruit who flew a tad under the radar en route to Central Florida: he turned down bigger offers in order to play alongside his brother with the Knights. He’s wasted no time acclimating to college basketball, shooting 54% on twos and 50% from three with good shot-blocking and rebounding numbers through his first nine games. At 6'9”, Hendricks can run the floor, knock down threes and play an active style that doesn’t demand a ton of touches. He’s not a great ball-handler and may not create a ton of his own offense, but athletes his size who can consistently space the floor, guard and play with energy tend to sustain success going up levels.
It feels pretty clear that Hendricks should be in the first-round picture, particularly with a range of brand-name freshmen struggling, and while his hot shooting may not be sustainable, his flashes of brilliance, two-way impact and projectable body type certainly have his arrow pointing in the right direction. He’s a player teams are eager to learn more about as the season goes on, and someone who could rise higher than this if he can keep his production and efficiency up. Hendricks would seem to fit an immensely valuable NBA archetype.
Mark Mitchell, F, Duke (23)
While some of Duke’s more notable freshmen have struggled, Mitchell has managed to leave a positive impression, putting himself more firmly in the one-and-done conversation than I originally expected. He has an incredible physical profile at his listed 6'8”, with long arms and good lateral balance that make him a versatile perimeter defender and create a pretty strong NBA floor due to the sheer demand for legitimate wing stoppers. He did an excellent job last week as the primary guy on Iowa’s Kris Murray.
Mitchell is not going to be much of a shot-creator and is still getting up to speed with the college game, but it helps that he’s been efficient to start the season, shooting 54% on twos and a surprising 42.9% from long range. (The second number is low volume and may not hold, but remains encouraging.) It would be nice to see Mitchell get downhill even more and draw fouls more regularly. He’s been fairly effective playing mostly out of the slot and corners in an offense that doesn’t feature him heavily. Prospects with his type of frame and athletic gifts tend to get plenty of chances to stick in the NBA, and at some point, his candidacy as a first-rounder doesn’t have to be overthought. Mitchell is still raw, but has a fairly good shot at being useful, and he’s further along than many thought he’d be.
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Dereck Lively, C, Duke (24)
At this point, NBA teams have essentially recalibrated their expectations for Lively, who entered the season among the top recruits in the freshman class but has yet to really separate himself. His per-minute stats don’t look bad at face value, but Lively has not been terribly productive or impactful and has struggled to gain a consistent foothold at Duke, with all of his offense coming around the rim and his minutes a true split with graduate transfer Ryan Young.
The good news is that Lively’s shot-blocking—which will ultimately be his NBA calling card—has ticked up a bit, and the appeal as a mobile rim protector remains. It’s probably wishful thinking to expect him to diversify his offensive game in-season, so for now, Lively kind of is what he is: an agile rim-runner who doesn’t space the floor and who doesn’t physically overwhelm with his frame or regularly outwork opponents with his effort. The jumper may eventually come, and the hope is that he can earn enough trust to log more minutes as the games get more important. Lively may ultimately benefit from a thin draft class at center, and his pedigree should prop him up a bit. But if this type of play is what we’re going to get for the rest of the season, it’s hard to see him as any type of lock for the lottery.
Dillon Mitchell, F, Texas (25)
While many were eager to see what Mitchell would do in college, he’s struggled to leave an early positive impression on scouts, due in part to a pretty poor team fit at Texas but also due to some controllable factors. There’s certainly an argument to be made that he’s been underutilized and misused to this point: he’s logged a lot of minutes out of position as a nominal center, Texas hasn’t run much to help him get easy buckets as a lob target and athletic finisher, and the Longhorns don’t play much in transition, which is where Mitchell thrives. He’s shooting 66% on twos, but just 54% from the line, and there’s not much diversity to how he scores—he hasn’t attempted a single three and feels far away from threatening to space the floor. He’s one of the best athletes in the draft, and may wind up benefiting from the predraft process, where he figures to test well and better showcase himself in workouts.
Having said all that, there are legitimate questions about Mitchell’s inconsistent rebounding and defense that may wind up following him into the predraft process. He certainly has the tools to be excellent in both areas, though he’ll need to get stronger to have a consistent interior impact in the NBA. He probably isn’t getting his number called anytime soon on offense, but it would go a long way if Mitchell would simply start to hang his hat as a low-usage, high-motor forward. More defensive production would help teams to feel more confident that he can hold his own defensively, hunt his own offense via the glass, and ultimately carve out a role. He has just one block in nine games, and his rebounding has been sporadic. The circumstances aren’t helping, but a lot of the shine has begun to come off here. Mitchell may not slip the way Greg Brown did at Texas two years ago, but his stock is in real flux as the New Year approaches.
Maxwell Lewis, G/F, Pepperdine (28)
I made a quick November trip to see Lewis play against UCLA due to the buzz he’d built behind the scenes in NBA circles and was pleasantly surprised with what I saw. While he’s not especially close to helping an NBA team next season, he has an excellent physical profile for a wing and a soft shooting touch. He also appears to be a quick study, which is critical due to the in-game development time he lost before college as part of the somewhat controversial Chameleon BX program. The arrow is pointing up here, and he’s the type of toolsy, raw prospect who can rise quickly in workouts, which makes him a clear player of interest for scouts moving forward, and perhaps the top mid-major prospect in the country.
Lewis will need to get his turnovers under control, but he’s put up several big games while being quite efficient as a scorer, and he has a ton of room to add muscle to his frame. While not a great improviser, he has flashed ball skills in isolation situations and shoots it well from distance, giving him some creative upside. Lewis can feasibly be a plus defender and positional rebounder as well, and if everything were to break correctly, it’s not crazy to think he could eventually be a starting-caliber player. There’s more work for him to do to solidify first-round status, but if I were picking in the 20s today, I would think hard about it.
Julian Phillips, SF, Tennessee (29)
Phillips has emerged as a positive contributor for Tennessee and a first-round candidate despite the fact he’s not scoring very efficiently. He put up a bit of a dud against Maryland on Sunday in Brooklyn, a game I attended along with a slew of NBA scouts, and his finishing struggles against bigger bodies as well as his hesitance shooting jumpers are a bit of a concern. How his individual offensive numbers bear out in conference play will play a huge part in how high he’s drafted, and right now they don’t inspire confidence.
What Phillips does have going for him is an excellent frame: he’s quite long and can get much stronger at 6'8”, and it’s the type of body that makes you want to excuse how raw his ball skills are. Big wings with his type of tools can wind up falling upward in the pros due to demand and scarcity for that role, and Phillips’s feel isn’t terrible. He can impact the game as a rebounder and defender and plays with a pretty even keel. His minutes have remained consistent to this point in the season as a result. He looks like a worthwhile project as a potential long-term NBA role player, but without some offensive uptick, it will be hard to draft him as more than that.
Terrence Shannon, G/F, Illinois (34)
One of the better bounce-back stories of the season has been Shannon’s return to prospect status after transferring from Texas Tech to Illinois. This was punctuated by a memorable early-season game against UCLA in which he hit eight three-pointers. His three-point shooting has since come back to earth, but the idea of Shannon as a viable bench wing feels a lot more reasonable than it did six months ago, on the heels of a middling predraft process. He has looked much more explosive athletically this season and has the physical tools to succeed in the long term. There are still some skeptics around the league, but Shannon is now a good bet to get drafted, potentially in the first round, which is a minor achievement unto itself after where his stock was prior to this season.
Reece Beekman, G, Virginia (39)
Beekman has emerged as a nice prospect on the heels of his strong early-season play at Virginia, headed into a high-profile matchup against Houston this weekend. The junior was one of the better defensive guards in college basketball last season and has taken a nice step forward on the other end as his usage trends up, demonstrating good feel for improvising in various situations and coupling what looks like an improved jumper with nice finishing instincts in the paint. Beekman offers nice role player potential as a two-way positive who can run some point and also add value without the ball. His impact and ability to read the game allow him to play a bit bigger than his listed 6'3”, and he should be in position to at least test the waters if he continues on as one of college basketball’s best guards.
Jaylen Clark, G, UCLA (40)
Clark endeared himself to scouts with a strong start to the season, bringing a junkyard mentality, strong perimeter defense and seemingly improved offensive game to the table. Expect some shooting regression, but so far he’s been efficient in all facets and a total pain for opponents to play against, willing to play physical, compete for 50-50 balls and line up against opposing scorers. The NBA upside here likely isn’t immense due to his size limitations on the wing and lack of creative chops on the ball, but as teams scour the college landscape for potential role playing wings, Clark has appeal as a potential bench piece. If he fails, it likely won’t be for lack of effort.
Zach Edey, C, Purdue (51)
The 7'4" Edey has been the best player on one of the best teams in the country, emerging as a dominant force after Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams turned pro. Edey has worked himself into excellent shape and his confidence has spiked, relying mostly on being gigantic, but also employing soft touch with his strong hand around the basket and a reliable hook shot. In the modern NBA it’s hard to project him as more than a situational, backup center, and I worry about him staying healthy at that size. But Edey is still relatively early in his development, he’s quite effective as a physical presence, and he has to be taken seriously as a second-rounder for the time being.
Emoni Bates, F, Eastern Michigan (56)
Lastly, an update on Bates, who essentially has free reign on an Eastern Michigan team that is 1–9 through its first 10 games. Bates has for the most part showcased his shot-making skills that are still very present, and he’s gotten buckets against mostly middling competition. But what NBA teams have seen has been mostly what was expected: Bates still doesn’t share the ball much, he hardly contributes defensively, and despite his individual talent, his high-usage scoring has not come in concert with team success. This is ultimately a matter of taste, and perhaps some team will take a flier, but until Bates learns to play team basketball and shows some signs of evolution on and off the floor, this feels like a tricky sell for teams as far as guaranteed money is concerned.
