Best and worst outcomes for the Milwaukee Bucks on Trade Deadline Day

The Milwaukee Bucks are the center of the NBA trade deadline landscape this season thanks to the persistent rumors surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo. Although the Golden State Warriors seemingly bowed out late on Wednesday night, the Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, and potentially more teams still have Giannis atop their board.

It’s hard to strictly define success in a spot like the Bucks are in. Is it better to get a haul of prospects and draft picks for Giannis since so much reporting this season has made it sound like a foregone conclusion that he’s leaving Milwaukee? Or should we take Giannis at his word that he’d be instantly committed again if he felt the Bucks were ready to compete next season?

Best Case Scenario - Retool with Giannis

Ja and Giannis — Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Let’s be honest: even if Miami or Minnesota or a mystery team jumps in and trades for Giannis, the Bucks aren’t going to get a player back as good as he is. That’s just not how these trades work. And that’s not even touching on the emotional side of bidding farewell to a legitimate franchise legend.

That makes the best outcome for the Bucks on trade deadline day obvious: they keep Giannis, with the Greek Freak remaining in Milwaukee through the deadline.

That can’t be all though. Even when Giannis was available this season Milwaukee has struggled mightily to string wins together. Kicking the can down the road isn’t a real victory for the Bucks.

Forging a path forward is though. So in addition to not moving Giannis, the Bucks do pull off some other trades. One fascinating option would be buying low on Ja Morant, as the Memphis Grizzlies have signaled their willingness to move Morant and begin their rebuild in earnest.

Some combination of Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, and Kyle Kuzma being sent for Morant suddenly gives the Bucks a dynamic 26-year-old reclamation project to pair with Ryan Rollins in their backcourt. It’s worth mentioning too that the last few times Milwaukee found a former All-Star point guard to acquire, Giannis put pen to paper and signed an extension.

Crucially, a buy low deal here preserves Milwaukee’s 2031 first round pick for a future trade. The Bucks will also have their first rounder in 2026 available to use or trade this summer, meaning even if Morant doesn’t work out Milwaukee would have pivot options. If Ja does find his form with the change of scenery, those picks could be used to fill out the rotation further.

Finally, the Bucks should still recognize with their current record and Giannis’ injury that this isn’t the season to make a deep run. Trading some of their minimum or near minimum salaries to take back more expensive players in exchange for second round pick capital would be a great way to further stock the coffer for future trades.

Worst Case Scenario - Bad Giannis Deal

This one is probably obvious, right? Losing Giannis Antetokounmpo, the superstar who delivered the Bucks their first championship in 50 years, is tough enough even if the return is considered strong.

If the package isn’t stocked with draft picks and promising prospects, Milwaukee isn’t just hurting in the moment. The Bucks owe so many draft picks from 2027 through 2030 that getting a Giannis trade wrong could legitimately ruin the rest of this decade for the Bucks. As tiring as trade sagas can be, Milwaukee has to get this thing right.

An even worse scenario would involve the Bucks overpaying for a mediocre player and still somehow losing Giannis. Morant for no picks is fun, but giving that 2031 first for him, or a Zach LaVine, could really haunt Milwaukee in the immediate and long-term future.