Chicago Bulls Toeing Dangerous NBA Draft Lottery Line Over Final Month

The Chicago Bulls could still screw everything up. I know, what's new?

To be sure, they have already lost the tank race. By not committing to a direction sooner rather than later, the organization threw away its chance at top odds for a spot in this year's excellent 2026 NBA Draft.

The good news, however, is that they at least used this February trade deadline to finally change course. The organization swapped out seven players and continued to prioritize both young talent and expiring contracts. The move let everyone know that the Bulls had finally decided to drop their win-now mentality.

Well ... almost everyone.

The way the Bulls have handled things since this destructive trade deadline has been puzzling. Veteran talent has been prioritized over young newcomers, and some injuries have been handled with surprising urgency. Speaking to the latter, Josh Giddey checked back into Tuesday's game after turning his ankle despite a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. He eventually had to be pulled from the game again.

As for Matas Buzelis, the second-year forward also sprained his ankle against the Thunder and went straight back to the locker room. While he did not return, Buzelis is now listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Suns. Giddey has the same designation.

It's hard not to think that most other teams in the Bulls' situation would handle things differently. Not only would Giddey likely not have returned to the court, but both he and Buzelis would likely already be ruled out for Thursday's meeting in Phoenix. If these two are the core pieces the Bulls insist they are, why not act out of an abundance of caution?

The only explanation is that winning does remain the priority. On the one hand, you can't necessarily blame players and coaches for having that mentality. It's quite literally their job. On the other hand, this mentality does clash directly with the potential long-term benefit of the organization. What would help the Bulls most moving forward is a higher draft pick, as well as using this time to evaluate players like Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, and possibly a healthy Jaden Ivey.

Leonard Miller of the Chicago Bulls — Mar 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Leonard Miller (11) dunks the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Particularly when we consider where the Bulls are in the NBA standings, this is a team that must take a more calculated approach the rest of the way. They have already stolen a game from the Milwaukee Bucks, shrinking the gap between the two squads to just 1.5 games. The last thing the Bulls should want is to see their lottery odds diminish, but this remains a very real possibility.

If the Bulls end up swapping spots with Milwaukee for 10th in the lottery order, they will watch their odds of a Top 4 drop from 20.3 percent to 13.9 percent. Their chance at No. 1 would go from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent. However, the damage could be even worse when we consider that the Bulls are also 1.5 games out from snatching the 8th-best lottery odds from the Grizzlies.

The difference between sitting 8th and 10th in the order is a 12.7 percent chance at moving into the Top 4. Your odds also double for a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. Again, this may not matter a lick to those sitting in the locker room, but it should matter a great deal to those sitting upstairs!

Yes, talking about this small a difference in odds can sound ridiculous. No one is denying that. But the Bulls have seen firsthand how monumental moving one rung up or down the ladder can be. Just last season, they lost a coin flip to the Dallas Mavericks, who thus earned the No. 11 spot and pushed Chicago to No. 12. What happened next? Cooper Flagg is now donning blue and chowing down on delicious BBQ.

The Bulls are bound to win some games between now and April 12. But it's the kind of games they win that will matter and potentially prove detrimental. For example, how will the Bulls approach the two remaining games against the Memphis Grizzlies? This could be a prime opportunity to bolster their chance at moving up the lottery board. Winning both games, however, could have the opposite effect if the Bucks keep losing.

Is this what anyone wants to be focusing on in March? Absolutely not, but it's the reality the Bulls have put themselves in. The only way out is to accept this reality and look for ways to turn an ugly situation into a positive one. By not doing those things, the organization only runs the risk of prolonging its irrelevance.

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