Narrowing Down Who the Boston Celtics Could Play in the First Round of the Playoffs

There are three possibilities, though a lot of unlikely things need to happen for one of these to materialize

Nov 23, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Orlando Magic guard Tyus Jones (2) defends Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

The Boston Celtics are officially the second seed in the East. Now they’ll wait to see who wins the 7/8 play-in game in a few days and becomes their first-round playoff opponent. Let’s break down the possibilities.

Who it won’t be

We still don’t know who the seventh seed will be, but we know who is out of the running.

Charlotte Hornets: They have become the darling of the league, and owners of the “no one wants to face them in the playoffs crown,” but they have stumbled a little recently, killing their surge and relegating them to the 9/10 game. They got as high as seventh and within sniffing distance of fifth but losses to Detroit and Boston extinguished that flame.

Miami Heat: They got as high as sixth on March 13, but the past month has not been kind to them. They went from 38-29 and sixth to 42-39 and tenth since then, a 4-10 stretch that has them as a play-in team once again. They will face Charlotte in the do-or-die 9/10 game.

Atlanta Hawks: On January 9, the Hawks moved Trae Young to the Washington Wizards. At the time, they were ninth at 19-21. They finished the month in tenth. But as they got healthy and started to trust in one another they made a steady march out of the play-in, all the way up to fifth. They are now 46-35, 27-14 since the Young trade, and can fall no further than sixth.

Who it could, but probably won’t, be

Toronto Raptors: According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Raptors, currently the sixth seed, have a 55% chance of staying there, a 36% chance of moving up to fifth, a 7% chance of dropping to seventh, and a 2% chance of eighth. They hold a tiebreaker over Orlando, so all they have to do is beat the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday to hold on. Brooklyn is still tanking, and Toronto is motivated to avoid the play-in, so it’s a good bet that the Raptors will win.

The two teams with the best chance

Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic: Orlando and Boston face off in the final game of the season, with the Celtics season comfortably set and the Magic still fighting for an outside chance at climbing to sixth. They only have a 3% chance at it if they win (they’ll need two tanking teams, Milwaukee and Brooklyn, to beat two teams with something to play for, Philadelphia and Toronto). Either way, an Orlando win would give them home court in the 7/8 game, which they’d probably want.

The Sixers are without Joel Embiid, the unluckiest player in the world, who just underwent an appendectomy. But they play well enough without him to be fine against the Bucks. Considering the tanking and rest situations, the most likely scenario will be the Sixers visiting Orlando. One caveat here is that the Sixers own tiebreakers over Orlando and Toronto, so if the Celtics, Sixers, and Nets win, Philadelphia will escape the play-in and climb to sixth.

The NBA has provided this colorful chart for you to follow.

As for who the Celtics should want, I suppose Orlando would be the first choice. They're more of a mess but they're also incredibly physical and I don’t like the matchup. The Sixers, though, have the best player in Tyrese Maxey and they're starting to hit a healthy stride, the Embiid situation notwithstanding. I like the uptempo style they play when Embiid is out, so that would put some pressure on the Celtics that Orlando can’t. Boston should easily win either series, so it’s more about which one would be an easier road.