Projecting the Boston Celtics Starting Lineup and Rotation After Nikola Vucevic Trade

Roster makeup
Starting at the top
Finding a match
Two bigs or one?
The Tatum wildcard

In some ways, Nikola Vucevic’s first two games with the Celtics have been “what you see is what you get.” He hasn’t shot the ball well yet, but he’ll pop out to the three-point line, he’ll make some nice passes, he’ll grab a few rebounds, and guys can toss it to him on the block against a mismatch. This has been Vucevic’s game from the beginning, and that's not going to change now.

However, when it comes to the lineup rotations, what we see can’t be trusted yet. He’s coming off the bench, something he’s willing to do, but is that really the best thing for the Celtics? And even if it is right now, will it be after Jayson Tatum returns?

Let’s take a look at where and when he should play, and how the Celtics rotation should look with a slightly different mix.

Roster makeup

Forget your typical positional breakdown. The Celtics use three classifications for their players: ball-handlers, wings, and bigs. That's what we’re going to do as well.

Ball-handlers: Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Max Shulga (two-way)

Wings: Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Ron Harper Jr. (two-way), John Tonje (two-way)

Bigs: Nikola Vucevic, Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Amari Williams

Stephens has already said the team will be looking for another ball-handler on the buyout market, and we’ll see where they go from there. But right away we see why Pritchard has been moved to the bench. That's the only way to ensure the Celtics have a ball-handler on the floor at all times.

Brown will initiate plenty of the offense, but he can’t be relied upon to be a point guard. He needs to be catching the ball on the move so he can break down the defense and get to the rim. Playing Brown at the top too much ends up taking him out of too many plays.

Now, the exercise almost starts to feel like picking sides for a playground game.

Starting at the top

With Pritchard on the bench and White as the starter, we need to start dividing the players up. Point guards and bigs are like pitchers and catchers. They have to have chemistry together and be able to understand each other inherently so they can be on the same page most of the time.

Pritchard is one of the best ball-handlers in the league, so he can break a lot of people down off the dribble. White is good, but he can’t do what Pritchard does. He needs a little more help to create space.

White’s superpower on offense is his brain. He can read things quickly and process things in real time. There is no player on the floor I trust more to make the right play than White.

Finding a match

So what does all that mean for matching a point guard with a big?

Pritchard is primarily an isolation scorer who uses the attention he draws to find a passing target. White is a read-and-react guy who thrives with options.

So I’m going to pair the pick-setter, hard-rolling big with the ball-handler who draws a ton of attention, and then put the big who can both pop and roll with the natural distributor.

Neemias Queta has been developing a strong chemistry with Pritchard all season long. Queta has grown by leaps and bounds, setting good picks, reading his point guard, and getting to the rim. He’s grown in his ability to operate in the dunker spot and finish, both of which are skills a driving, ball-handler like Pritchard needs in a center.

Pritchard loves to operate in the paint, and he can keep his dribble alive around just about anyone. The more he does that, the more he draws defenders who want to swarm him and neutralize the threat. Having Queta with him, leaning on the season-long chemistry they’ve built, gives Pritchard the outlet he needs.

White will drive, but not as much as Pritchard. White is averaging 7.8 drives per game to Pritchard’s 12.2, so he’s a little more selective. Giving him a pick-and-pop partner can help White’s drives be more successful because it takes some of the traffic out of his way while giving him another passing option.

I see White and Vucevic as a couple of jazz musicians who can just riff and play off one another, while Pritchard is a soloist who just needs a drummer to fill in some of the breaks.

Two bigs or one?

This brings us to Luka Garza, who has found himself in the unique situation of starting but also losing minutes. Unfortunately for him, I think the latter will be the trend here.

Right now we have White, Vucevic, and Brown as three starters. This is starting to feel like the formula the Celtics were using the past few years with Kristaps Porzingis (though Vucevic feels more like an Al Horford type). This trio needs two things: shooting and rebounding.

So I’m putting Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman in the starting lineup with those guys. Hauser speaks for himself as a shooter, but he’s also become a more complete player this season. He can grab a couple of boards and defend well enough. Scheierman’s rebounding has been a revelation lately, and he’s also been a capable defender. His shooting remains spotty at times, but if he’s just taking overflow, catch-and-shoot chances, then he can be effective.

It’ll be tough for Vucevic to anchor that group defensively, but Mazzulla can lean on his scheme of protecting the paint at all costs and allowing specific three-pointers to get them by.

Queta can sub in early if need be, and he can be the defensive center to close games. There's no rule that says the starters have to finish games.

Rotations tend to go about eight or nine deep, and we’re already at seven with the starters, White, and Queta. We’ve got a sub for our point guard and a sub for our big. We need two more subs, and they're both wings, which probably means some combination of Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, or Ron Harper Jr.

That probably leaves Garza on the outside looking in, which is unfortunate for a guy who has worked so hard this season. I like everything Garza has done for this team, and there will certainly be situations where using him in a double-big configuration makes sense. There will be nights when the Celtics can’t hit a thing, and Garza can help clean up some of the mess with his offensive rebounding. And there might be times when Vucevic can just get a day off, maybe on a back-to-back, and Garza can step back into the rotation.

But it feels like his role will be more situational now that Vucevic is here.

The Tatum wildcard

I like pairing White with Vucevic and Pritchard with Queta. From there, the rest of the lineups tend to fall into place pretty easily. It feels like Boston can weaponize Vucevic when he’s surrounded by shooting much more easily than Queta or Garza.

This also makes the fit with Tatum’s eventual return pretty seamless. It’ll be easy to move Scheierman or Hauser to the bench and then demote Walsh or Gonzalez from there. It’s an easier transition than playing double-big until then and switching to single-big. They might as well get used to playing that style now so they can make it easier whenever Tatum is back.

I understand Mazzulla’s motivation to go double-big right now. It was good against the Rockets, but not so much in the next two games. But he’s also rewarding Garza for the work he’s put in, which is important. I think the evidence that it’s not really effective will make it easier for Garza to take the news that his role is changing again.

Minimizing Garza is less about what he does and more about what other guys do better. Queta might not be happy about moving to the bench, but that can easily be spun as “We like how you and Pritchard work together, so we’re pairing you guys up.”

Ultimately, starting Vucevic with White, Brown, Scheierman, and Hauer makes the most sense for this current roster. If something changes, then we can revisit this, but this group and set of rotations is the Celtics best chance to get their chemistry and flow back.