Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups for Friday's Matchup

In this story:
For the first time in eight seasons, the Hawks won't have Trae Young on their team.
Atlanta kicked off the trade deadline by sending Young to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Corey Kispert and CJ McCollum. They didn't get any assets, but the pathway towards clearing future cap space in order to bring in a future star makes complete sense. McCollum's contract expires at the end of this year and Kispert is on a very manageable $13 million APY deal for the next three seasons. The Hawks could use the contract in trade discussions this summer if they believe Kispert doesn't have a real place on this roster.
For most of this season, the prevailing argument is that the Hawks will be a better team without Young. Assuming that's the case, tonight is a notable step in evaluating that theory. Young hasn't played much this season, but per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks offense was still 9.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court (95th percentile among all guards). It'll be especially interesting to watch how the Hawks perform without Young in the half-court offense and how much the defense progresses without Young in the lineup.
Tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is a tougher test than it seems on paper. Although the Hawks won't have to take on Nikola Jokic, they still have Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon on a minutes restriction. Furthermore, they've been surprisingly competitive in the five games they've played without Jokic. In those games, they've beaten three of the best teams in the Eastern Conference in Toronto, Philadelphia and most recently, Boston. They are operating with a talent deficit, but they have been able to overcome it and the Hawks are going to have to play great basketball if they want to win tonight.
By the Numbers

Atlanta's offense has struggled over the past few games, but they got back on track against a terrible Pelicans team. They are 11th in points, 8th in FG%, 5th in 3P%, 20th in FT%, 25th in rebounds (27th in OREB, 19th in DREB), 1st in assists, and 18th in turnovers per game. They're 18th in offensive rating this year.
The defense still has tons of room for improvement even if they throttled down on the Pelicans. The Hawks' defense ranks 24th in points allowed, 23rd in FG% allowed, 11th in 3P% allowed, 25th in rebounds allowed, 6th in steals, and 18th in blocks. They're 16th in defensive rating this year.
A lot of their production is obviously from having Jokic in the lineup, but the Nuggets are still a dangerous team without #15. They are 1st in points, 1st in FG%, 1st in 3P%, 3rd in FT%, 23rd in rebounds (24th in OREB, 8th in DREB), 5th in assists, and 3rd in turnovers per game. They're 1st in offensive rating this year.
Their defense isn't quite as amazing as their offense is. They are 22nd in points allowed, 17th in FG% allowed, 12th in 3P% allowed, 7th in rebounds allowed, 29th in steals, and 29th in blocks. They're 24th in defensive rating this year.
Three Reasons The Hawks Can Win This Game

Zaccharie Risacher has come under fire this season for his perceived lack of development, but the young wing was able to silence his critics against the Pelicans. Risacher was arguably Atlanta's best player in that game. He made seven threes en route to scoring 25 points and also grabbing eight rebounds. His jumper looked smooth, and he showed off his quick release against New Orleans, which has some talented defenders on the perimeter. However, his most impressive play of the night was a chase-down block on Bryce McGowens that showed the advantages of having a small forward with a 6'10 wingspan. It's unclear whether he can repeat that against the Nuggets, but this is a pretty exploitable perimeter defense. He missed both of his threes against Denver earlier this season - if he taps into his aggressiveness from deep, this could be a very different game for Risacher.
Mo Gueye has impressed despite playing limited minutes, but the Hawks got to see what Gueye might look like as a starter and he did not disappoint. The Hawks big man stuffed the stat sheet with 10 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, four steals and two blocks. He finished as a game-high +27, indicating how crucial he was to Atlanta's win. This is the versatile impact that the Hawks have lakced from their depth pieces. He won't play like this every night, but it's very obvious that Gueye needs to get more minutes and this was an excellent argument as to why head coach Quin Snyder should play him more.
Pace is a factor that doesn't always swing games, but there is a significant gap in how fast the Hawks play in comparison to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 2nd in pace this season while Denver is 22nd. They're just a much faster team than Denver and that trend has held true without Jokic. In fact, they've gotten even slower and dropped to 27th since Jokic's injury. If the Nuggets can't run with Atlanta, they may be at the mercy of the 2nd-best transition offense in the NBA by points added per 100 possessions.
Three Reasons The Hawks Might Lose This Game

Jamal Murray has always been an excellent complementary piece to Jokic, but it's easy to forget that he can still excel when he's the best offensive option. The Celtics had no answer for Murray in Denver's recent win - he had 22 points and 17 assists on only two turnovers. Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are more than capable of chasing him all over the court, but they didn't have a ton of success against Murray last time they faced him. The Hawks got into his handle and forced four turnovers, but he still had 23 points and 12 assists on 4-6 shooting from deep. It's going to be a big challenge for the Hawks to keep Murray from going nuclear.
Despite Spencer Jones not being a big part of Denver's roster at the start of the year, Jones has been quietly important for their team this season. He hasn't played much with Gordon, but the two-man duo of Jones and Murray have a 5.2 net rating and an excellent 126.4 offensive rating. He's been a solid defender, brings a ton of energy/hustle and shoots 41.6% from deep on around three attempts a night. He's given the Nuggets some nice two-way minutes as a depth piece. The Hawks may be able to avoid playing him, but he'd be a big lift for Denver if he plays.
One part of the Nuggets' comeback victory over the Hawks that didn't get enough notice was their bench. Tim Hardaway Jr and Bruce Brown have been in a ton of high-stakes situations and they're capable of swinging a game off the bench. The duo combined for 28 points and went 6-10 from deep in that game, which gave Denver the extra little bit they needed to beat Atlanta. On paper, the Hawks have the bench advantage by bringing off either Porzingis or Okongwu in combination with Krejci. However, an off night for Krejci could leave them severely short-handed for extra firepower against Denver.
Injury Report
N'Faly Dante and Trae Young are out (Young is technically still on the team).
Nikola Jokic, Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas are out. Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are probable while Spencer Jones is questionable.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight's game:
Tip-off time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks
G - Nickeil Alexander-Walker
G - Dyson Daniels
F - Zaccharie Risacher
F - Jalen Johnson
C - Kristaps Porzingis
Nuggets
G - Jamal Murray
G - Christian Braun
F- Aaron Gordon
F- Peyton Watson
C- Daron Holmes II
More Atlanta Hawks News:

Rohan Raman has been covering the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since June 2024. He has been a contributor to Georgia Tech Athletics for On SI since May 2022 and enjoys providing thoughtful analysis of football, basketball and baseball at the collegiate and professional level.