Final Score Predictions For Hawks vs Nuggets: Who Wins Tonight's Matchup?

Can the Hawks find a way to upset the Nuggets tonight at home?

Dec 3, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) dribbles against LA Clippers forward John Collins (20) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks have had one of the more challenging schedules from a logistics standpoint, playing the most road games in the NBA while fighting injuries to star point guard Trae Young and center Kristaps Porzingis. Atlanta is 13-10 and hoping to avoid a third straight loss tonight when they host the Denver Nuggets and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

The Hawks still have injury questions heading into this game. Both Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable and Trae Young is still out. Now, Denver is missing Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Julian Strawther, so this game might come down to the injury report for the Hawks and who is available for them tonight.

Looking at the numbers

Dec 3, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (10) drives to the basket past LA Clippers center Ivica Zubac (40) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In the preview for the game this morning, our own Rohan Raman took a deeper look at the advanced numbers for the Hawks through the first 23 games:

"Two straight poor performances from the Hawks are going to drop their season numbers on offense. At the moment, they're 18th in points, 10th in FG%, 9th in 3P%, 21st in FT%, 26th in rebounds (26th in OREB, 18th in DREB), 1st in assists and 17h in turnovers per game. They're 20th in offensive rating on the year and a matchup with the Nuggets' struggling defense could be a perfect way to right the ship.

The defense has been a bit better as of late, but Atlanta could certainly use some improvements on that end. On a per-game basis, the Hawks rank 12th in points allowed, 12th in FG% allowed, 6th in 3P% allowed, 24th in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals and 10th in blocks. They're 9th in defensive rating on the year, which is a very good mark considering how many lineup shifts the Hawks have gone through.

The Nuggets will have an average to elite offense for as long as Nikola Jokic continues to play basketball. At the moment, they're 1st in points, 1st in FG%, 2nd in 3P%, 4th in FT%, 9th in rebounds (16th in OREB, 6th in DREB), 5th in assists and 4th in turnovers per game. They have a juggernaut of an offense and it'll be extremely interesting to see how the Hawks approach this game on defense.

Their defense has been significantly more suspect over the last few games, but the larger sample size indicates that they're reasonably solid on that end. They're 15th in points allowed, 11th in FG% allowed, 5th in 3P% allowed, 3rd in rebounds allowed, 28th in steals and 25th in blocks. Their lack of depth and atheleticism is why they're 27th in defensive rating."

The injury report is going to dictate this game for the Hawks. If Johnson is out again, I don't think the Hawks have a path in this game due to the caliber of team they are playing. Because they are on a back-to-back with a game tomorrow night vs the Wizards, it would not be surprising to see either Johnson or Porzingis rest tonight and play tomorrow. Due to the unknown of the injury report, I lean Denver in this game.

Final Score: Denver 125, Atlanta 116